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Hurricane Dean and the Impact on Baja & Mexico Travel

07PM 08/21/07 UPDATE: Hurricane Dean made landfall on the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Tuesday morning as a vicious Category 5 Hurricane. Rainfall in excess of 15" was reported in certain areas. Damage remains unclear at this time. Hurricane Dean is now headed across the Gulf of Campeche for a rendezvous with the port city of Veracruz and then across mainland Mexico towards Mexico City as a tropical depression then it is expected to dissipate.

In addition to the possible affects of the hurricane mention below also consider topping of the tank of your car if you are in Mexico. Significant oil refining and production facilities in Mexico are going to be impacted, along with shipping along the west coast of Mexico to Baja later this week.

Banana prices are expected to soar, as much of the Caribbean banana crop will be wiped our for some time, due to Dean.

Produce prices in Mexico may be impacted by the passage of Dean through the Mexican State of Veracruz, a very agriculturally productive region of Mexico, particularly at this time of year.

3PM MDT 08/18/07 First, let me start by saying that we absolutely do not wish a hurricane on anyone. Residents of Baja Sur have a keen awareness of what a small hurricane can do, as we have been lucky over the years, only experienced one major hurricane, Hurricane Kiko in the late 80's. Few people lived in the East Cape region, where the storm made landfall, and even fewer gringos weathered the hurricane season in Baja. For the rest of our hurricanes, they aren't even to be compared to the storm that is now bearing down on the Yucatan peninsula.

The weekend is a common beginning to many people's vacation plans. With Dean forecast to make landfall late Monday or early Tuesday those headed for Cancun should seriously consider revising those plans, whether or not their travel insurance covers the cancellations. Following Hurricane Emily may travelers were stranded for days and intervention by the military and special flights by airlines were required to help travelers return to the US. Enduring the devastation of a Category 5 hurricane could be significantly worse. If a cat 5 storm does make landfall there loss of human life is a certainty and not to be trifled with.

At the time of this article, Dean is forecast to be a Category 5 Hurricane when it makes landfall somewhere on the Yucatan Peninsula. A major hurricane, those greater than category 3, does significantly more damage than anything Baja is use to. Hurricane damage goes up exponentially when we look at a major hurricanes. A Category 5 storm has the ability destroy wooden structures and even those made of cement block. Roofs can be ripped off, cars over turned and palm trees flattened. With wind speeds of 150kts you can well imagine that debris becomes fatal projectiles. Winds of that force can take a human being airborne.

More Below...

Current Storm Track Projection from the National Hurricane Center

One of the greatest dangers of a storm of this magnitude is tidal surge. A hurricane drops the pressure in the core so low that it actually picks up the ocean. A Category 5 storm can bring a wall of water 30 feet or more. Devastation can be total. Being caught outdoors in these conditions would like prove fatal.

So what might this mean to Baja Sur? Some media have bold headlines like "Will Dean Cross to the Pacific?" These headlines are spectacular, but highly unlikely. Mountain ranges that exist through central Mexico would disrupt the cyclonic convection of the storm very quickly. In the last 47 years, according to NHC data not a single Atlantic Tropical Cyclone has crossed central Mexico to reform as a tropical cyclone in the Pacific Basin. In 1988 Fifi crossed the Tehuantepec, which is both a short and low crossing, and briefly reformed as a tropical storm in the Pacific. It is far more likely that the storm will curve to the NNW or even north and punish Texas or NE Mexico.

In 2005 Hurricane Emily made landfall very close to the same area that is expecting Hurricane Dean. Emily severely damaged the tourist facilities in Cancun and the Playa del Carmen area. it took more than a year for the travel industry to recover there. Hurricane Emily was only a Category 3 storm at the time of landfall. If current forecasts hold true, Cancun should be bracing for an event of cataclysmic proportions.

Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Isla de los Mujeres are very popular destinations for East Coast travelers as well as tourists from Mexico. Long supported by efforts of the Mexican government including subsidies to airlines and hotels, Cancun has been the golden Child of the travel industry in Mexico. Tourism as a whole, is very important to the Mexican economy ad the loss of Cancun for this season or longer will be a blow to the economy of the entire country.

Automatically Update Information on Hurricane Dean from the National Hurricane Center in Miami

When Hurricane Emily tore up the Yucatan in 2005 the focus shifted. Despite the fact that travel was still under the cloud created by the Bush administration and 9/11, the Los Cabos area experienced significant growth. Subsidies were shifted and the travel focus turned more toward travel to Los Cabos. This encouraged more people to visit Los Cabos and many, to discover our area as a travel destination for the first time.

Not to be ignored, another popular tropical travel destination, particularly from the East Coast of the US, Jamaica is currently forecast to have the eye of the storm pass the entire length of the island. For the Yucatan this MAY prove a blessing as computer models that are currently forecasting a Cat 5 strike do not account well for terrain interference in storm development. Jamaica has some significant mountains that could take some steam out of the storm as it moves along the backbone of the island.

Already this year the Mexican travel industry has been more active in promoting travel to Los Cabos. In the event of a disaster in the Yucatan – Baja may be the big winner. The trick will be for Baja Sur to avoid it's own tropical cyclone landfall, although our storms do not achieve the ferocity projected for Dean.

PS: At the time of this article the actual plot for Dean and the forecast issued several hours ago indicate that Dean may pass north of the island of Jamaica. If this is proves true the storm is angling further to the north. Impact along the Gulf coast of the US becomes more likely.