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This
is a our last report from the 2006 Hurricane Season. Every other week
through July and every week thereafter this page will be updated to
assess the latest probabilities of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the
Eastern Pacific
October
21, 2006 I have been a slow in getting up the Hurricane Watch the
last two week. With little or no activity on the ITCZ since TS Norman
reformed, I guess I presumed our threat season had past. My neighbors
here at Marina Costa Baja keep asking..."So what is the threat for the
week ahead?" With the heat beginning to abate here in Baja Sur and
the humidity dropping it would seem like our Hurricane season has ended.
And then there was Paul.
The fact stands, this is really past the time that Baja
usually needs to worry about hurricanes. A tropical cyclone has not made
landfall in Baja after the 14th of October in the last 57 years. That
doesn't mean that it CAN'T happen and Paul may prove that early next week.
The storm is currently forecast to brush by Los Cabos on Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Paul has formed some 515 miles SE of Cabo
San Lucas and is expected to wander WNW for the next few days, until it
is just west of the Socorro Islands sometime Monday. At this time of year
there is a strong northeasterly flow from north of the Socorro Islands
up into Texas and the southern US States. It is expected that the storm
will enter this flow sometime late Monday and turn dramatically to the
NNE. Once in this flow the storm is expected to accelerate and gain strength,
becoming a hurricane. Paul is then forecast to pass just south of Cabo
San Lucas sometime Tuesday on it's way to landfall on the Mexican mainland.
I have to say that I disagree with the NHC's forecast
when they call for the storm to strengthen as it approaches Baja Sur on
Tuesday. As the storm accelerates within the NE flow and moves into the
cooler and dryer air that has moved into Baja Sur over the last week that
the convectional flow of the cyclone will be disrupted. Like Norman and
Olivia in the weeks past, the storm could rapidly dissipate into a Tropical
Depression. On Tuesday morning the storm is forecast to be a Category
1 Hurricane just 135 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas. The storm is then expected
to accelerate to about 17mph and move NE to be over mainland Mexico as
a tropical depression just 24hrs later. This velocity and force of the
upper level winds should take the punch out of this system fairly quickly.
I would anticipate that the southern most portions of Baja Sur should
expect some rain and wind from a storm that will pass by us very quickly
some time Tuesday. We could still use a little more rain.
More below...
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With TS Paul on the horizon, where do we stand for the last half of October...
Sea Surface Temperatures
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SST October 14, 2006 |
SST October 07, 2006 |
SST September 30, 2006 |
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Tropical cyclones thrive in waters warmer than 26° C and degenerate
in waters below that temp. Areas south and east of the red line
have the potential for a tropical storm strike |
Looking at the Sea Surface Temperatures there is still
reason to pay attention to the course of TS Paul. The Pacific from Acapulco
to Guasave is the warmest of the year, over 30°C. This is very fertile
area of the formation of tropical cyclones. The area of +29°C water remains
virtually unchanged since the peak of our season in September, having
only shrunken a bit on the western extension into the Pacific. The all
important 26°C thermo cline remains just about as far north as Turtle
Bay. Landfall of a tropical cyclone south and east of the red line is
still possible.
We have seen our break in the heat here in Baja Sur. On
October 15th, just like clockwork, our summer heat began to abate. We
have still had a few warm days here, and that will continue for another
week or so. But overall, the blistering hot days of summer are history.
With the corresponding drop in humidity and overnight lows in the 70's,
our SST's will begin top drop as well. Evidence of this can already be
seen on the northern parts of the Sea of Cortez, where SST's are already
below 25°C .
When we look at the surface chart above, there is further
reason to believe that we are just about done with the Hurricane Season
for 2006. We can see TS Paul (red arrow) just south of Baja Sur. There
are only two tropical waves on our map, (yellow arrows) all the way back
to the African coast. Back in September there were as many as six Tropical
Waves moving along the ITCZ. Currently, the eastern most tropical wave
may become involved in generating a late season storm in the Caribbean.
Of some note however, is the dramatic turn in the ITCZ (orange arrow)
as it enters the Pacific near Panama. The ITCZ is the pipeline that delivers
tropical energy to our basin and it has turn NW along the Pan-American
coastline. This will potentially deliver those last remaining Tropical
Waves right into the warmest water in the Eastern Pacific, along the southern
coast of Mexico..
SST Anomaly
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October 14, 2006 |
October 7, 2006 |
September 30, 2006 |
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The colors represent deviation of this years water
temperatures from the norm. Green is normal, blue colder than normal
and yellow warmer than normal waters.
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Then there is the SST Anomaly, the amount above or below
normal temperature of the ocean. This news is not very good, considering
we have Paul spinning our direction. We can see that most of our Eastern
Pacific Hurricane Basin is at least 1°C above normal and some areas are
almost 3°C above normal. The path that is projected of TS Paul puts it
through waters that may be more similar to water temps during our peak
periods of hurricane threat. The amount of kinetic energy store in the
sea's surface is above normal and will have greater than seasonal impact
on the formation and strength of this storm.
So, what should we expect for the week ahead? I think
we are going to get some rain, early in the next week. It is likely that
Paul will still pack winds and rain of Tropical Storm intensity when it
passes south of Cabo sometime Tuesday. But, the recent examples of Norman
and Olivia seem to indicate that the air over Baja has become too cool,
dry and windy to maintain a tropical cyclone. I believe that, if Paul
achieves hurricane strength, it will be short lived and the most Baja
could expect is rain in the southern most portions early next week. This
should be the last hurrah for Baja in the 2006 Pacific Hurricane Season,
which runs through November 30. With any luck at all those folks sailing
south with the
Baja HaHa the first of the month should have smoother seas and some
nice warm water to greet them as they approach the tropics from Turtle
Bay south.
Until next week... Clear skies and fair winds!
Tomas
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane
Watch is an editorial analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center,
NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is
an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer
to
notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center.
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