Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch -  Into Peak Threat

The Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly graphic right is a good strategic tool when looking at the possibilities of tropical cyclone formation. The news for us here in Baja is good, well slightly better than normal. The blue/green water on the graphic is about normal temperature for this time of year. Between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes on the mainland we can see an ellipse of slightly colder than normal water. The only bad news in this is that area of cooler than normal water is a whole lot smaller this week than just a week ago. The yellow areas represent waters that are 1-2°C above normal. After the passage of this current system these areas will also probably return to normal water temperatures in next week's graphic.

What this means for the chance of tropical cyclone formation is that things are about normal. The usual amount of kinetic energy is built up in the oceans surrounding Baja and the amount that energy contributes to the formation of a tropical cyclone is average.

Most of the Sea of Cortez is now just about seasonally normal.

When we look at the Sea Surface Temperatures we can verify that the Hurricane Season isn't over yet. The red line on the graphic left traces the position of the all important 26°C thermo cline. Once a tropical cyclone crosses into sub-26°C water they usually spin apart within a day or two. As is evident on the graphic, the warm water continues to move north leaving about 1/2 of Baja Sur in the direct threat of a tropical cyclone.

So, we add all these factors up.

So now the fun part, my prognostications. When I write down my final 'score' on prognostications for the 2007 season I'm going to request an asterisk be placed next to my dismal score. As proud as I was of my intuition in 2006 my crystal ball seems to have clouded in 2007. I haven't dare actually tabulate the results yet, but I'm pretty close to doing better by flipping a coin.

This week I am going to take the advantage of the foresight of a three day forecast. This system SSW of Manzanillo will probably develop into a hurricane as it moves WNW. Most likely to be given the name Ivo, it will move the the NW and we will have to keep an eye on it, as things then to turn back to the NE at this time of the year.

The next tropical wave will begin to show it's intentions in our basin mid to late week. Right now, looking at the tropical flow, things are moving west by west north west. Even if a system were to be stimulated off the southern coast of Mexico, it would probably move well south of Baja.

The next name on the list is Juliette. The last time that name came around was in 2001 and that Juliette brought lots of rain to Baja Sur when she bump, ground and finally collapsed crossing the peninsula with one of the most unusual and enduring tracks along the Baja coastline. (image left) It is that time of year, we'll be keeping a close eye on it for you.

But, we could still use some more rain!

Until next week... Clear skies and fair winds!  
Tomas

Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.