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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch
Monday, September 14, 2009 It has been two weeks since our last Hurricane Watch Report. Two weeks ago all we had to do to 'watch' was look out the window as Hurricane Jimena passed by our area and devasted much of central Baja. Last week were were preoccupied with the aftermath and helping get the word out about Baja's Hwy 1 and the assistance needed for the most affected areas of Central Baja. Besides, it is statistically and physically unlikely to have two hurricanes attack Baja that close together.
We have received many reports from our readers on the damage cause by the storm, most of it focused on the central part of the peninsula. The west coast pueblos of Man of War Cove, Lopez Mateo and San Carlos suffered the impact of the most powerful NE quadrant of a Category 2 storm. The east coast of the peninsula, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia received as much as 30hrs of torrential rain and the flooding that resulted was horrendous.
Many bridges along Baja's Highway 1 were heavily damged in the storm and we have provided our reader Road Reports to keep folks safe and informed on the current road conditions.
However, surprisingly to many including myself, Jimena passed near Magdalena Bay area as a Category 2 storm, made landfall as a Category 1 and emerged in the Sea of Cortez as just a Tropical Storm. Many folks reported to us winds speeds much in excess of these results, but the unfortunate fact is that local geography 
and altitude can greatly affect the impact of the storm. Actual storm intensity is measured very accurately from space and is based on many factors including barometric pressure and total net wind speeds. Had Jimena actually been a Major Hurricane at the time of landfall resulting damage would have been even greater. At the peak of the storms intensity, SW of Cabo San Lucas Hurricane Jimena was a Category 4 Storm.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin is small and relatively shallow. In the 51 year weather history of our basin (of which only about the last 25 can really provide detail information due to the use of satellites there have only been 9 Category 4 storms and 1 Category 5. None have ever made landfall above Category 3.
Hurricane Kiko in 1989, which made landfall on East Cape remains the only Major Hurricane to make landfall in Baja and the most powerful hurricane to impact our peninsula. The fact is, Jimena doesn't even make the top 10, despite its significant level of devastation to the central portions of the peninsula. The fact the that storm stalled over the Sea and pumped days worth of rain from the wettest quadrant of the storm (SW) was a significant factor in the damage received from the storm. The additional factor of that, as a storm slows the water falls out like a washing machine coming out of the spin cycle added to the more than 20" of rain that fell in the region.
We have received many inquiries in the last week with the significant weather change from readers who are thinking we may have ended our Baja Hurricane Season. I'm afraid that is unlikely. Hurricanes are natures engine for dissipating equatorial energy northward. It is very normal for us to have a period following the storm of cooler and dryer weather, as our summer has been transported north into northern Mexico and even as far as Michigan, which received rain from the very dissipated remains of Jimena. AS of the writing of this article, our temperatures are still in the upper 90's and humidity today is even higher than the days preceding Jimena. Statistically, we have about 30 days to go from today before we are really 'out of the woods'.
But along with that lets add some mitigating factors. This week a cold front will slide SE across the peninsula from the Pacific. The cooler/dryer air will bring some relief to Baja California and perhaps even a little to Baja Sur. The Pacific High IS slowly migrating south and the closer it gets to Baja Sur the better. Also, a High pressure has 
dropped down from Texas into northeastern Mexico. The same position of this High saved us from Hurricane Stan a few years ago. The cooler and dryer air could literally be seen to be sucking the life out of the hurricane as it tried to reform over the Pacific.
The Sea Surface Temperatures (or SST's) of the waters surrounding Baja dropped a little both along the Pacific coast and in the Sea of Cortez. Unfortunately for those looking for the end of the season, they are still warm enough to support tropical cyclone activity by several degrees centigrade. More importantly, as seen in the graphic shown right, the Hurricane Birthing region south of Baja continues to warm up. The areas of +29°C waters expanded this week significantly and we can expect that there will be at least one more system to form close enough to the mainland coast that we will need to be on alert again.
This year is a mild El Nino year. (so far) Statistically speaking, El Nino years can provide Baja with more than one tropical cyclone landfall. 62% of the time both storms are hurricanes.
As we look at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly graphic left we have reason to remain alert. Most if not ALL of the region south of us remains 1°C to 3°C above normal. The passage and rainfall from Jimena did benefit the local waters (and not the local fishing) by dropping Sea Surface Temperatures back to the normal range. But strategically speaking, that means virtually nothing to our chances of being impacted by the next tropical cyclone. The only benefit being that there is slightly less energy stored in the waters surrounding Baja to feed a storm AFTER it makes a Baja landfall. To a very minor extent, since hurricanes tend to follow the warmest waters, it may steer away from our peninsula. Unfortunately, by the time the cooler waters are encountered by a storm it may already be on an irreversible track for us.
At the time of the writing of this article there is in fact, another system that is likely to develop into the Eastern Pacific's next tropical cyclone, Marty. A reminder of the storm that devastated the La Paz marine community 7 years ago and pushed the BajaInsider into the forefront of Baja hurricane informational sources, this storm is likely to be born well west of the threat window to Baja. However, its projected movement gives us additional reason to keep our eyes fixed on storms that form closer to the mainland coast. Early projections for this new system have it moving to the NW to NNW. This means that the northern hemisphere is beginning to cool and instead of our tropical summer flow of east to west, we are moving toward the winter flow of west to east. This flow is what brings tropical cyclones back to Baja, against their natural forces to orbit to the west, caused by their counterclockwise spin.
More below...
As we look at the Wide Angle Surface Chart for the Western Hemisphere we have reason to be optimistic. This hurricane season has been nothing less than bazaar. While the storm count in the Eastern Pacific remains about normal, WHERE these storms have formed has been quite out of the ordinary. After the early formation of Hurricane Andres, which gave the uninformed a start here in Baja, only Jimena formed close enough to Mexico to threaten either the mainland or Baja. All the others formed well west of a threat window. Two of this seasons storms posed more threat to Hawaii than to us here in Baja.
Right now, there are two potential systems in the Atlantic. (magenta arrows) Storms that from in the Atlantic often 'use up' the energy from the tropical waves born in the deserts of Africa long before they can reach our basin and stimulate a storm here. We have two tropical waves in our basin, (orange arrows) the most westward is likely to stimulate the next system (red arrow) and the more easterly is not likely to find enough moisture to stimulate following the first. The next tropical wave is still located in the central Caribbean. This is the one to watch toward the end of the week, when it will enter our basin.
Now the fun part, where I gaze into my crystal ball and prognosticate on the Cyclonic fortunes in the week ahead. I am doing very well this year, my net score is in the 90% range. But having taken the last two weeks off, we'll have to score that with an asterisk. We will have the birth of Marty in the next few days, it is almost a given. But the storm will form too far west to threaten Baja. Then I think the rest of the week will remain quiet. Next week will be one to watch. Statistically speaking again, the third week of September poses the highest threat from storms making landfall in Baja. That threat remains high until the end of the first week of October. The stats fall off dramatically in the following 7 days, and by mid October the Baja Hurricane Season is over. So, in short, this should be another quiet week,as will the early part of next week. But then we will have to keep our eyes peeled. But what do I know...?
Tomas Zyber
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.
Where do Baja Hurricanes Come From?
The other day someone asked me, "So where to most tropical cyclones that make landfall in Baja originate?"
That's a good question and the answer is,
"It depends..."
Shown in the animated graphic left, August tropical cyclones are generated in the very warm water along the southern coast of Mexico. This area south of Acapulco has water over 26°C all of the year, during hurricane season it is regularly +30°C.
As the season wears on, the warm water works west, as do the storm formation points.
By October some systems are curving north or even north east to make landfall in Baja.