Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch -  After Henriette

First, let me invite any of you with the hankerin' to see Baja in her finest cloths, come visit now. The greening of Baja Central and Sur is underway. By the third week of September things will be peaking with blooms, pitahaya and greenery. For those of us who grew up green and now spend 9 months a year in desert brown, it's a welcome sight.

Almost all the eastern side of Baja Sur received close to it's yearly rainfall. The western side of Baja Sur received less than 1/2 their badly needed rainfall amounts, less than 4" from the storm. Some places in the mountains between La Paz and Cabo San Lucas received as much as 17" of rainfall. The San Jose del Cabo reservoir is at 100% while the reservoir providing water to La Paz is only at 40% of capacity. I guess we could still use a Tropical Storm to pass nicely off the west coast of the peninsula and soak us one more time before our monsoon season ends.

More below...
 

So, most of the crowd down here during the summer has a few hurricanes under their belt and quickly squelch those rookies when they ask if that was it for the year. Ignacio and Marty are recent reminders that 2 hits a year is not impossible. However, it usually provides a period of calm following the passage of a hurricane.

Hurricanes are natures engine for redistributing the energy of the equatorial sunlight. Following the passage of a storm, much of that energy is now redistributed to places as far away as the central midwestern US.

If we look at the SST Anomaly graphic right we can see a big 'hole' of water more then 2°C BELOW normal between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. The energy that had this same area two weeks ago 1°C above normal may have appear over the weekend as a thunderstorm in Ohio.

This is good news for us. The colder water is less likely than normal to spawn a tropical cyclone and will provide less energy to hurricane which will pass through the area.

Looking at the SST Analysis, we see that red line of the 26°C thermo cline has pretty much reached it's apex, near Turtle Bay. Looking at hurricanes from a strategic standpoint, it means that areas south and east of that red line are very exposed at this time of year to tropical cyclone landfall. The thermo-cline will hold there for a few weeks, then begin to cool and drop south again.

So now the fun part, my prognostications. Stick with your first instinct. That was the adage that got me through more than one college exam. I forgot that lesson with Hurricane Henriette. Three weeks ago a pair of tropical waves were just entering our scope in the Caribbean. I predicted that the second of these two waves would be of concern to us. Well, these waves slowed and were still threatening the following week, when I backed down and said that high upper level winds would knock down an pending cyclone. Hah – that second wave became Henriette. I get a big Goose Egg of 0% for that one. That's gonna hurt my GPA!

Since we are on one week articles now I have the advantage fr the first three days of looking at the Surface Chart analysis. Looking three days out from today, there are no threats on our horizon. I do think the basin is going to have at least one hurricane. Down south there is one tropical wave about 1400 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas that shows some promising development.

There is another Tropical Low that the NHC dismissed this morning that has blossomed on satellite image this afternoon. (Tuesday) Upper level winds are pretty still around this system now and I think it may have more potential than previously estimated. Both of these systems should move well west of Baja and not pose a threat to us. But then, what do I know.

As far as is the season over... not hardly. The patterns are now established for the early fall. The statisical peak of our threat is September 22 to Oct 7. Don't put away those storm shutters quite yet...

But we could still use some more rain!

Until next week... Clear skies and fair winds!  
Tomas

Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.