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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch
Monday, August 10, 2009 Hurricane Felicia was the big weather news this past week. Felicia has all but blown itself our, as it nears landfall in the Hawaiian Islands as a Tropical Storm out in the Central Pacific Basin
In the Eastern Pacific Basin we currently have one tropical cyclone, possibly on its way to becoming Tropical Storm Guillermo. There is also an area of disturbed weather being stimulated by a tropical wave several hundred miles SSW of Acapulco which will present possibilities for another developing system. This the time of year that the Eastern Pacific starts cranking out the tropical cyclones. But the good news is the systems are developing further south and the flow takes those storms due west, out into the Pacific well south of Baja.
But statistically speaking, we are just days away from the beginning of the Baja Hurricane Season. The earliest a hurricane has made landfall in Baja Sur is Aug. 15.(see Baja Hurricane History) so by next week we need to be alert to storm formations southeast of us.
The Sea Surface Temperatures (or SST's) of the waters surrounding Baja continue to warm up and much of the tip of the peninsula is now surrounded by +26°C water. The all important 26°C thermo cline has worked its way around the peninsula and up the west cost, nearly to Magdelena Bay. Tropical Cyclones require +26°C water to form and build. Once crossing into cooler waters, tropical cyclones tend to dissipate very quickly. The graphic right shows that most of the Sea of Cortez is now warmed than 30°C and our Hurricane Birthing Zone (where Baja Hurricanes are formed) is 29°C or better. This means the kinetic energy is there are ready to be developed into a tropical cyclone as additional forces combine to make these storms possible. So far this season we have not seen the combination of these elements.
As we look at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly graphic left is the amount of water very near the Baja peninsula that is well above normal. The very warm area of +2°C water that extended SW of Cabo has mellowed. The bad news is that much of our Hurricane Birthing Zone is now above normal. The bulk of the region south and southeast of Baja is 1°-1.5°C above normal. This will provide more energy, earlier in the season to potential storm formation. The passage of just one hurricane could equalize this anomaly however.
It is also interesting to note the apparent comings and goings of the El Nino trend(seen at the bottom of the graphic above) Last week it appeared that the El Nino phenomenon was disappearing, with this weeks graphic it appears to be going strong. In El Nino years Baja has a significantly increased chance of tropical cyclone landfall.
More below...
Above is the wide angle surface chart for 08/10/09. Tropical Depression 9E can be seen left, (red arrow) as it move off into the Pacific. There are six tropical waves on our map (orange arrows) two are already in our basin and the western most of which has a moderate chance of spawning a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs. If one of the western two waves doesn't cause a tropical cyclone to develop, we will have about 48hrs break between those and the next wave to enter our basin. Looking back toward Africa, where the tropical waves are formed in the deserts of the Sahara, we are looking about a week into our weather future. There is a tropical Low (magenta arrow) in the Eastern Atlantic that may become that basin's first tropical cyclone in the next few days.
Now the fun part, where I gaze into my crystal ball and prognosticate on the Cyclonic fortunes in the week ahead. I am crankin' this year, holding on to my perfect batting average on storm prediction. TD9E helped to keep me on track with the weekend formation of a tropical cyclone in our basin. This week should be at least a 50% slam dunk too. This system southwest of Acapulco will most likely become a tropical cyclone early this week, but it should move west, harmlessly into the Pacific. This will dissipate a good amount out the kinetic energy from our basin. With a couple of days break between tropical waves we can probably look for a second tropical cyclone formation late in the week or over the weekend. By the time that system rolls out into the Pacific it will be the last week of August and time for Baja to be storm ready, our turn is coming...