Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch -  "Go West Young Hurricane"

Living here in La Paz, I assure you no one is complaining about the lack of humidity – except may those worried about our water table. Baja gets between 7 and 10" of rain per year on an average. Most of the time a bulk that comes in the form of one direct hit from a tropical cyclone or as the spin off from a couple of near misses. The rest of our water comes from thunderstorms over the mountains, from moisture migrating westward from the mainland. So far this season only a couple of scattered thunderstorms have resulted from our dry skies. Local authorities are already warning of the drought conditions and the amount of time city water is available in La Paz has been decreased. Unless we get some rain soon, the problem will worsen.

Storm formation is behind statistical average this year no doubt. By this time we have usually had 9-10 named systems, this year Flossie is our 6th. Even more deceptive in those results is where they have formed, far west in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Our only hurricane of the season so far, Cosme only achieve Category 1, and that was so far west, close to the Central Pacific Basin, we shouldn't get credit for that one.

If you draw a line south from Cabo San Lucas you really define the Baja Hurricane threat zone. A storm that forms west of that line is virtually no threat to Baja. Storms that form east of that line are ones we need to keep our eyes on. This year only TS Barbara, which was so early in the season it moved east to the Mexican/Guatemalan border, and TS Dalila which passed some 210 miles away from Baja to the west, have formed in that region. in 2006 five storms formed in that region, and the average number of hurricanes to form in this region in the last 10 years is 4.4. Interestingly enough in 2004 only two storms formed in the region, it is the only year to have a longer gap between storms than 2007. So perhaps we are looking at a year like 2004 in more ways.

We can hope for a similar year to 2004. In that year only the remains of Hurricane Javier came ashore as a tropical depression north of Magdalena Bay and exited on the Sea side near El Rosario. Hwy 1 took a hit in that area but damage was limited. Not a single other tropical cyclone passed close enough to Baja to raise an eyebrow.

More below...
 

SST Anomaly

The colors represent deviation of this years water temperatures from the norm. Green is normal, blue colder than normal and yellow warmer than normal waters.

So what is happening right now? Flossie is going to spend some time working it's way toward the Hawaiian Islands and probably become a hurricane, just barely, before entering cooler waters.

Speaking of cooler waters I hear all the fishermen locally, complaining that the water in the Sea of Cortez is colder than normal. In fact, according to the statistics provided by the National Hurricane Center, water in the Sea of Cortez as a whole is just about normal, just a hair warmer in fact. Many fishermen are comparing it to the two previous years I think, which warmed up faster than normal and provided better fishing, earlier. If we look at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly graphic right, it animates the above and below normal SST's, blue being colder than normal, green normal and yellow to red being above normal. The entire region SE of Cabo, or our threat zone, is normal to slightly warmer than normal.

Another interesting note, and feature perhaps effecting our hurricane formation can be seen right at the bottom of the animated frame. The equator is just below our frame and you can see the welling of colder than normal water, some times as much as 3°C colder than normal appearing to reinforce the La Nina condition. This too is a good omen for Baja as we only get hit by a tropical cyclone 48% of the time, and that includes wimpy tropical storms!

SST Analysis

Tropical cyclones thrive in waters warmer than 26° C and degenerate in waters below that temp. Areas south and east of the red line have the potential for a tropical storm strike

It is getting to that time of year however when Baja is at risk. If we look at the animation of the Sea Surface Temperatures shown left we can see the steady northward advance of the 26°C thermo cline shown with the red line. As of Aug 4th all of the southern tip of Baja is encompassed by +26°C water, thus making landfall of a tropical cyclone possible. At the peak of the season the 26° thermo cline will advance as far north of Mag Bay.

We have another flurry of tropical waves headed our way. Following a short break we will have three in quick succession. These are the seeds of tropical cyclones we have limited moisture available right now for them to stimulate into a tropical cyclone.

By late weekend the forecast calls for a strong High to form over central Mexico which should continue to keep things dry in the eastern basin.

So now the fun part, my prognostications. Like the week before I was 100% correct in my prognostications for the Eastern Pacific in the last Hurricane Watch. I wrote, one tropical storm last week and and Hurricane late this week. We had TS Erick and with any luck I'll score my Hurricane Flossie before the end of the week. However, I'm only going to take 90 points of that, because none of these systems are forming where I expected them too, everything is forming far to our west, well out of the danger zone for us.

So we have TS Flossie, which should soon become a hurricane, only our second of the year. We will continue to have peace and quiet I think through at least the middle of next week in the eastern portion, the area the concerns us anyway. The water SW of Cabo is a little warmer than normal and that is where these storms are spinning up. Fine, they can have them, but can we have a little rain please?

Where the rubber meets the road then, quiet in the eastern basin and another topical storm will blow up late next week out west. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it. At least until the next edition Aug 15th – the beginning of OUR hurricane season!

Clear skies and fair winds!   Tomas

Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.