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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch
Tuesday, August 04, 2009 We currently have two active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin, Enrique and Felicia. Both systems are well west of any possible threat to Baja. Since they formed well west of our region, they also little serve to eliminate building kinetic energy in the region of the Pacific that will later in the season spawn our tropical cyclone threat.
Tropical Storm Enrique is forecast to remain a large but disorganized tropical cyclone as it nudges close to the all important 26°C thermo cline then curves back toward the Hawaiian Islands late in the weekend. TS Enrique is currently more than 750 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas.
Tropical Storm Felicia on the other hand is a more defined, smaller system that is currently forecast to become a Category 1 Hurricane in the next 24hrs. TS Felicia too, is well west of the threat window to the Baja peninsula, some 1200+ miles to the WSW of Cabo San Lucas.
First, let's look back at the month of July in the Eastern Pacific. We saw the formation of three tropical cyclones in the month of July, Tropical Storm Blanca, Hurricane Category 2 Carlos and Tropical Storm Dolores. On a 40 year average two hurricanes for the season at the end of July is about par. However, we are nearly two tropical storm formations behind the norm. Also, the severity of the systems has been less this year and we have yet to have our first Major Hurricane for 2009. (Major Hurricanes are those of Category 3 or greater)
The time is quickly approaching that Baja will need to be more alert to the approaching systems. By mid August much of Baja Sur is statistically at risk of a landfall of a tropical cyclone. 3 of our last 4 tropical cyclone landfalls in Baja have been in the last week of August. The threat ramps up to late September, then falls off dramatically the second week of October.(see Baja Hurricane History)
The Sea Surface Temperatures (or SST's) of the waters surrounding Baja have warmed up significantly during the month of July. The all important 26°C thermo cline has worked its way around the peninsula and up the west cost, nearly to Magdelena Bay. Tropical Cyclones require +26°C water to form and build. Once crossing into cooler waters, tropical cyclones tend to dissipate very quickly. The graphic right shows that most of the Sea of Cortez is now warmed than 30°C and our Hurricane Birthing Zone (where Baja Hurricanes are formed) is 29°C or better. This means the kinetic energy is there are ready to be developed into a tropical cyclone as additional forces combine to make these storms possible. So far this season we have not seen the combination of these elements.
What is of concern as we look at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly graphic left is the amount of water very near the Baja peninsula that is well above normal. These warmer than usual waters SW of Cabo San Lucas may spell good fishing for those warm water species and sport fishing in Cabo San Lucas. However, they do increase the threat level to the Baja peninsula. The amount of energy stored in these large areas is significant. We look at SST anomalies as a strategic predictor of cyclone formation. Areas os water warmer than usual are more likely to spawn a tropical cyclone or will provide additional energy to a passing cyclone. We are certainly into the season where Baja could experience a 'near miss' by a tropical storm or hurricane, and the passage of such a storm would help to lower these water temps as cyclones are nature's engine for dispersing tropical energy.
It is also interesting to note the sudden disappearance of the developing El Nino. (seen at the bottom of the graphic above) This bodes well for the statistics and Baja. In La Nina and in 'Non" years, Baja has a lesser likelihood of a tropical cyclone landfall. In El Nino years we are all but guaranteed a landfall of a tropical cyclone.
More below...
Above is the wide angle surface chart for 08/04/09. Tropical Storm Enrique (red arrow) and Tropical Storm Felicia (magenta arrow) are moving west into the Pacific. Another tropical wave is moving west south of Acapulco, Mexico and is unlikely to find sufficient disturbed air to generate another tropical cyclone this week. The next three tropical waves are well spaced, about 2 days apart. This is some of the lightest flow of tropical waves we have seen since late June. Additionally there is a trough (yellow arrow) in the Atlantic, which may develop further late in the week. This would absorb a significant amount of the west bound wave and lessen our chance of having a system develop in our basin. The Atlantic is due up for a storm.
Now the fun part, where I gaze into my crystal ball and prognosticate on the Cyclonic fortunes in the week ahead. I did well, with my last predictions, if only underestimating the potential for the flurry of tropical waves that passed through our basin. TS Lana, now in the Central Pacific basin, became a tropical depression from the third of six tropical waves that passed through in 24hr succession. Enrique and Felicia were spawned by the same tropical wave, the last in that series of rolling troughs.
So, the week ahead... This first tropical wave will pass undeveloped, but the second will enter our basin late this week and with sufficient moisture now forming near Cabo Corrientes, we could see the first tropical cyclone form in our region in the middle of next week. If that wave passes undeveloped, the next wave will enter our basin mid week and the final wave late next week. This is looking WAY into my climatic crystal ball, but that would put development of a tropical cyclone mid month in a region that could present a threat to Baja should it move the to the NW.