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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch
Friday July 24, 2009Throughout the Baja tropical cyclone season we will take a look at those strategic factors influencing the formation of tropical cyclones. This is an editorial look at those weather factors and is not intended to be a long range forecast. These articles will also put forward additional education information about hurricane, forecasting and the impact of these tropical phenomenon.
2009 Outlook from the NHC May 21, 2009The Climate Prediction Center’s 2009 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 80% chance of a near- to below-normal season. Because of uncertainties in current predictions for El Nino, a near-normal and below-normal season are equally likely at this time. The outlook also indicates a 20% chance of an above-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above, near-, and below-normal seasons. |
First let's define the Baja Tropical Cyclone Season. The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season begins on May 15 and runs through November 30. The Baja California Peninsula is only exposed to tropical cyclone threat for about a third of that time. The earliest tropical storm to make landfall in Baja California Sur was TS Calvin which made landfall as a weak Tropical Storm on East Cape on July 8th of 1993. The earliest Hurricane to make landfall in Baja Sur was Category 1 Hurricane Doreen on August 15th, 1977 near Todos Santos. The latest Hurricane to strike Baja was 2008's Category 2 Hurricane Norbert on October 11. Norbert was very nearly the most powerful storm to make landfall but diminished just hours before making landfall in the Comondu region of central Baja. The reigning most powerful strom remains 1999 Category 3 Hurricane Kiko which made landfall on the East Cape.
One of the major factors allowing tropical cyclones to reach Baja is the Sea Surface Termperature. Tropical cyclones require water warmer than 26°C. In the graphic left, the 26°C thermo cline is outlined in red. Storms dissipate quicky once crossing into colder waters. Much of Baja is exposed to waters greater than 26° from about mid July through late October.
Another factor is still air. As strange as it seems, tropical cyclones don't like wind, at least winds other than their own. As the landmass of the mainland and Baja heat, the regional barometric pressures equalize and drop, the stage is set of another aspect of tropical cyclone formation. This begins to happen around the second week of August.
Humidity is a cause and affect of the tropical cyclone season. AS the water temperatures in the basin rise, water evaporates more quickly, raising the humidity levels. Earlier this season Tropical Storm Andres made a charge in the direction of Baja. Many folks scrambled in preparation as the forecast call for the system to move toward a Baja landfall. However, anyone that has ever been here through a hurricane season would have known it was too cool and far to dry to support a system that early in the year. As it followed, Andres dried up well short of Baja.
So far this season the Eastern Pacific is well behind the norm in producing tropical cyclones. In a normal year we would have seen 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 Major Hurricane (Category 3 or greater) This season so far we have had just 4 named systems, a Category 1 and a Category 2 Hurricane and not a single Major Hurricane.
Does this mean it is going to be a quiet year or does it mean the ocean is sotring up knetic energy to whup on us later in the season, when storms are more likely to make it as far north as Baja California Sur? The andser maybe "yes"
Right now much of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane basin is warmer than normal, but by just a degree or two celcius. On the graphci right, these areas are highlighted by the red arrows. The southern arrow points to an area in our hurricane birthing region, the area where most of the Baja hurricane originate.
But these slightly warmer than normal regions could balance out quickly, should another storm pass through that region. Tropical cyclones are natures engine for disspating equitorial energy from the sun to the more northern latitudes. One good storm could bring these levels back to normal during a part of the season where the tropical cyclone usually move west out harmlessly into the Paciific.
A look into the crystal ball for the week ahead...
So here is the fun part. Each article I take a stab at my prediction for storm formation in the week ahead. In 2007 batted an amazing 920 or 92% on the money. Last year I didn't do quite as well, but still more accurate than flipping a coin with a 720 or 72% correct rating. This week seems like a shoe-in however. There is a series of tropical waves stacked up and headed our way. At some point in the next 5 days we could have as many as 4 tropical waves traversing our basin at one time, just 24hrs apart. One of them is sure to stir up some moisture and give us a tropical cyclone, probably late in the week. However, it will probably just be a spectator sport for Baja, as the conditions still lean toward taking the system promptly out to the Pacific on a WNW track. In the weeks ahead though, we will start having the increased risk of a near miss.
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.