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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch - Dodging the Labor Day Bullet.
Question from a Reader - Trip Plans |
Reader: I have a trip scheduled for September 8 in Los Cabos, Baja California. I saw on a website that there is 30% chance of a hurricane occur. Can you tell if within the period of September 8 to September 17 there will be some severe storm? Thank you. Editor's Reply: Yes, that possibility should increase in the next day or two. Let’s clarify what you read…”There is a 30% chance of a tropical cyclone forming” You could say that about any given week in Baja Sur’s September, it IS hurricane season. However... A tropical cyclone exists from a depression to Hurricane 5. A depression being like a bad rainy day in New York and of course a Category 5 Hurricane being much worse. Only 1 Cat 3 storm ever hit Baja. Most of our Eastern Pacific storms are small in size. Hurricane Frank passed 300 miles south of Cabo and they didn’t even rain. A majority of cyclones that form in the Eastern Pacific move west out to sea without landfall. If you are staying in a major resort Category 1’s and 2 can even be called ‘entertaining’ to observe nature’s fury. Remain indoors. Hurricane deaths are from drowning and debris.
You can often get better rates during this time of year and the chance of you missing a day of vacation even to rain is small. Flight delays the 3 days around a storm or hurricane may be occur. Keep an eye on the weather. If things grow severe, which is rare, modify your travel plans. Don't put yourself in a situation you are uncomfortable. |
Years ago, hurricanes use to ‘mess things up’ fuel and food wise in Baja. Today, most the vados have bridges and things are back to normal in La Paz and Cabo within 24-36hrs. The exception being the direct hit areas less accustom to storm proofing. (Mulege, East Cape, Santa Rosalia, San Carlos)Updated Spet 1, 2010 With the safe passing of this Labor Day, which looks likely at the moment, we will drop the odds. Baja has received tropical cyclone landfall (now) 7 of the last 11 years in the period from the last week of August to Labor Day.
This past week, instead of writing the Hurricane Watch, we were watching hurricanes. Tropical Depression 9E spun up on the morning of August 21. Once again track forecasts have proven very accurate, while defining the future intensity of the storm still eludes computer modeling.
The track was forecast to pass very near the Socorro Islands for nearly a week, as the storm did. The intensity forecasts were stymied by a High in the Gulf of Mexico that generated wind shear, impeding TD9E's development. Three times then system was forecast to become a named storm, and didn't. Three more times forecasters though Tropical Storm Frank had the potential to become a hurricane, and Frank disappointed again.
Finally, the High dissipated and Tropical Storm Frank moved enough west of the Mexican mainland and the diminishing High that the storm achieved hurricane intensity over +28°C water on the morning of August 25.
Frank's stint as a hurricane was to be short lived, as cooler waters and turning winds sapped the energy from Frank. Frank, at the time of this article, is just a tropical Low and will disperse about 200 miles WSW of Cabo over the weekend.
The benefit from Frank to Baja is the disbursement of tropical energy northward. The new SST graphic to be released on Monday will certainly show a diminished temperature of the waters in Frank's path. It would have been nice to have gotten a little rain as a result however. Baja has received about 1/3" of rain this season, in a usual pitiful amount of annual rainfall equal to about 7.8".
As an aside, above right is pictured Hurricane Danielle in the Atlantic. For hurricane watchers, Major Hurricane Danielle formed a classic hurricane lines this past week when achieving Category 4 intensity with a well defined eye. A Major Hurricane is one of Saffir Simpson Scale of Category 3 or greater. Danielle is now diminishing and is losing that classic definition.
The down side to Frank is now we see the door open for storms to head to the NW then turn back in our direction. As the northern hemisphere begins to cool we develop a flow to the NE across Baja. Much later in the year this will bring us the gray skies we call Pineapple Express. At this time of year it can return us a NW bound tropical cyclone.
Seasonal Sea Surface Temperatures |
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Animated SST's from May 15 to Current Week |
One of the things that spared us Frank and may bring and end to yet another few storms is the Sea Surface Temperature. Tropical Cyclone require (there are exceptions) water warmer than 26°C. Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones fade very quickly when crossing the 26°C thermo cline, some in as little as 8 hrs (i.e. Hurricane Rick, 2009)
That important thermo cline now reaches just north of Todos Santos on the Pacific side then runs SW then west off into the equatorial Pacific. The region of warmest waters, +29°C, diminished along the coast of mainland Mexico, even before the passage of Frank. We can expect to see more cooling in the 8/27 SST graphics. Most of the Sea of Cortez is above 28°C and the eastern shores are over 29°C. But this is actually only slightly normal for the Sea of Cortez at this time in the year, over the past 25 years. However, looking at the graphic above, we see that is is below normal for the Sea Surface Temperatures for the last 5 years.
Seasonal SST Anomaly °C |
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Animated SST Anomaly May 15 to Current Week |
The Sea Surface Anomaly graphic left defines this even more. The graphic shows the seasonal evolution of Sea surface temperature anomalies with color and banding. The light green areas are within the norm for the last 25 years. Yellow areas are warmer than normal going up the scale to red. Banding indicates how many degrees above normal in °C. One this week's graphic we can see there are areas WSW of Cabo that are as much as 2°C below normal. In either 2008 or 2009 the path of Hurricane Frank could have easily delivered a Category 1 or even 2 hurricane to the SW tip of the peninsula. We were spared Frank by colder waters.
Hurricanes are natures machine for rapidly dispersing equatorial heat northward. In the next week's SST anomaly we will likely see much of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin return to normal or below normal temperatures.
Taking a look at the Sept 01, 2010 wide angle surface chart below we have one tropical wave (orange arrow) way back in the central Atlantic and it looks that that will stir up another tropical cyclone there. The existing Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona absorbed the last two waves and Danielle the wave before that. One wave that slipped through generated Hurricane Frank in our basin. We have a Low (red arrow) that may yet get tropical cyclone status, but will also soon be too far west to affect Baja. A trough, (yellow arrow) crossing the Tehuantepec is possibly the next threat to Baja landfall, and forecasters aren't even looking at that seriously yet.
More below...
Looking at Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the week ahead...
To date we have had 6 named tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific, the 20 year-to-date norm is 10. In an average year we have had 5 hurricanes by the last week of August, this year just three. Two of these hurricanes average Major Hurricane Status, this year that is the one class we are right on target, with two major hurricanes. It looks like we dodged the "4th week of August curse", we had a tropical cyclone landfall in Baja Sur 7 of the last 10 years, this moves it to 7 for 11.
So now for the fun part...
In every Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch Report I take my best shot at a strategic look at now just the week ahead.
In the last Hurricane Watch Report I speculated we would have a Tropical Storm move close to Baja late in the week. I was mostly correct, so we'll score that a 90%. It was once a Hurricane, but at its closest approach to Baja Sur it was just a Tropical Depression.
So, what does the crystal ball reveal and the Ouija board spell out for us? The directional door to Baja landfall is now open, but the waters along that path remain cool. Only a coast hugging system that approaches from a more northerly course will reach us with any force. In the interim report I predicted this system now becoming more active will spin up, I stand by that and think it will just be a TS. The next system to move in our direction will require more of our attention. the humidity is high, the air is increasingly still above Baja and the average barometric pressure is falling with a High Pressure ridge to our west, but the surrounding waters are still cool.
My bet for this coming week is that this system south of Cabo WILL develop and move off to the WNW into the Pacific. This next system from the trough could be our next threat. Cyclones will need to spin up close to Acapulco and move along the warmest waters along the west coast of Mexico to pose a threat to us. I see us needing to make preparations for a tropical storm landfall in about 10 days. I don't think the waters are warm enough this season (so far) to deliver us a hurricane.
But what do I know...
Tomas Zyber
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.
Hurricane Watch Report Archive
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