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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch
Saturday, October 31, 2009 This will be the final edition of the Hurricane Watch Report for 2009. The Baja Hurricane Season has almost certainly drawn to a close and it has been an exciting one, with lots of action for Baja Sur. As a whole, it was a particularly easy year for Mexico, with the landfall of just one hurricane, Category 2 Jimena and no hurricane landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico. The bad luck for us is that one landfall was on Baja California Sur.
The Atlantic basin was remarkably quiet and the Atlantic Hurricane Season ends today, Oct 31, where as the Pacific Hurricane Season continues through November 30. Although the Season may continue for another 30 days, it is virtually impossible for Baja to experience another tropical cyclone. But one thing about Mother Nature, never say never.
The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season starts May 15th and it began very quietly. Usually we have our first tropical cyclone by May 22-25, the first Tropical Depression didn't form until nearly a month later, June 18, and the first hurricane, Andres, formed on June 21. Andres gave some of the Baja rookies a case of nerves, initially forecast to move toward the Sea of Cortez, the storm fizzled due west of Puerto Vallarta. In June the air is warm enough for hurricanes but neither still enough (too many upper level winds) or humid enough to support tropical cyclone activity. In addition, the weather surrounding Baja are just reaching the nessicary 26°C levels to support cyclonic activity. The Baja veterans never got too worried about Andres.
For the next 70 days there was a normal level of cyclonic activity, but of lower intensity than usually. The net result for the season was above the norm for the last 11 years, but 4 tropical storms above normal versus the 44 year average. The number of Hurricanes and Major Hurricane was on par with the 30 year average but above normal for the last 11 years, which have been notably quieter. The graphic shown here has the 1966 to 1996 period, the 1997 to 2008 period (which was quieter than norm) and the current year. Although 2009 is not complete, it would seem unlikely that we will have another tropical cyclone form in the Eastern Pacific.
This was the driest year in the recorded history of Mexican Climatology. The only hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in 2009 was Hurricane Jimena, and the unlucky location was the west coast of Baja California Sur. Jimena made landfall near Bahia Magdalena/Puerto San Carlos as a Category 2 Hurricane. It then moved over the Pacific and made a second Baja landfall south of San Ignacio as a Category 1 Hurricane and moved across the peninsula dissipating to a Tropical Storm before emerging into the Sea of Cortez near Loreto. The significant damage came as the storm stalled over the Sea of Cortez, just east of the peninsula, dumping heavy rains for as much as 36hrs causing flooding from Constitucion to Santa Rosalia. Jimena then moved back across the peninsula a day later, after battering San Carlos on the mainland as well.
Baja had a couple of late season threats, TS Olaf, TS Patricia and Hurricane Rick were all forecast to make landfall in Baja Sur. But the air mass surrounding the peninsula was too dry that late in the season and all three storms disappeared just before reaching the peninsula.
For those folks that like to tune to the other weather sites and quote 'individual models' the proof came again this year that that is just a waste of time. The National Hurricane Center blends and weights all the models to generate the 5 day track forecast. The resulting track models for Jimena, Olaf, and Patricia all placed the storms within half of the margin of error cone 4 to 6 days in advance of the storm. Hurricane Rick was the exception to this great batting average, as it was the colder drier air that pushed Rick's track south and eventually spelled the end of the 2nd strongest storm ever to form in the Eastern Pacific.
I have included the final version of the animated Sea Surface Temperature graphic and the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly graphic to show how the waters of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin warmed then cooled over the last 4 months. The Eastern Pacific spent much of the 2009 season warmer than normal, particularly the areas where Baja hurricanes are formed, so I guess we 
should consider ourselves luck. With this final graphic it is evident how the ocean has begun to cool and that much of the basin is just above normal. If we see one more tropical cyclone out of the 2009 season it is likely to form west of Acapulco and move west along the ITCZ. Waters in this region are still 1-2°C above normal.
As accurate as the NHC's track predictions have become, they still seem to have some work to do on intensity forecasting. The NHC consistently over estimates the forecast storm strength SE of Baja. Hurricane John, Hurricane Henriette, Hurricane Jimena and Hurricane Rick were all forecast to make landfall as Major Hurricanes just 3 days away from their actual landfall. Three made landfall as Category 2's and one, Rick, dissipated entirely before reaching Baja Sur. To date, only one Major Hurricane (Category 3 or greater) has ever made Baja landfall and that was Kiko in 1987. That is one record no one in Baja should be anxious to break.
Lets take one last look at the weeks ahead before we call it a year. It still is possible that the Eastern Pacific will see the formation of another tropical cyclone, but I wouldn't put money on it. Below is the wide angle surface chart from the day of the publication of this article. There are three more tropical waves in the pipeline, moving west from the deserts of Africa. (orange arrows) But the stopper is a cold front (blue arrow) that has pushed southeast from the Pacific Northwest and brought cooler and drier air well into the Caribbean. Should a storm form, it would likely move due west along the ITCZ and be very short lived, presenting no threat to Baja Sur.
I have enjoyed writing these articles over the past 5 years and learned a great deal about our Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones as a result. This article is our most popular series on the Baja Insider, and with any luck will be continued again next year.
I've talked about the National Hurricane Centers batting average on track and intensity predictions, now it is time to look at my own seasonal record. I was 100% on predicting/guessing the weeks in which storms would form, but with 18 tropical cyclones forming in 22 weeks, it wasn't that tough. I was an impressive 90% on predicting WHICH tropical wave would spawn storms, but I did expect three additional storms to threaten Baja, which move harmlessly off into the Pacific yielding 60%.
So if you generate a bell curve, let the numbers fall where they may and then just give a grade by the seat of your pants, I think I deserve a solid B+ for 2009. But what do I know...
Tomas Zyber
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.