Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch - Looking Back at the 2011 Season
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Updated November 22, 2011 I had planned to author this “Hurricane Season Wrap-up” article the end of November as the season officially ends on November 30. Who would have thought there would actually be a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific this late, but we have Hurricane Kenneth which is more than 750 miles south of Cabo San Lucas at the time of this article. This makes Kenneth the seasonally latest hurricane since 1949 and the strongest late season hurricane on record. The closest ‘runner up’ was an un-named Tropical Storm in 1951 that developed off the coast of El Salvador and dissipated just west of Baja's East Cape on November 30.
Hurricane Kenneth has achieved Category 4 intensity as well, making it the 6th Major Hurricane of 2011, this too is rare, only two years (1997 & 1998) had six Major Hurricanes in the last 20 years.
Hurricane Kenneth should have no effect on Baja weather.
So, let us take a look at the 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. There were several outstanding features to this year. This was a transition year for the El Nino/Nina event, or what we call a “non-year” The National Hurricane Center forecast 2011 to have fewer than normal storms, and that it did. It looks like we will finish out 2011 with 11 named systems. (those achieving Tropical Storm status or greater) A normal year is around 16 named systems, but over the last 7 years we have averaged 13.2 named systems. This year was about 30% below the norm in named systems in the Eastern Pacific.
Hurricane Adrian Max Cat 4, June 7-12 |
The ferocity of the storms that did form made up for the lack of number of storms. The 2011 season had 5 Major Hurricanes, three of them very early in the season. There were four Category 4 Hurricanes and 1 Category 3. Of the Category 4’s, two of them were just a knot of wind speed under becoming Category 5 Major Hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific usually gets 3.2 Major Hurricanes per season. Five Major Hurricanes is not unheard of, there have been three years in the last decade with more than 3 Major Hurricanes.
We had more hurricanes and fewer tropical storms. In an average year about 4 of our named systems only achieve tropical storm status. In 2011 only one of the eleven named systems was a tropical storm, the rest achieved hurricane status.
It was a rare year for landfalls of tropical cyclones, lack of landfalls to be more precise. Only one hurricane, Category 2 Hurricane Jova made landfall on mainland Mexico near Barra de Navidad. Hurricane Beatriz back in June brushed along the same section of coast in the mainland state of Jalisco, then turned to the west and dissipated.
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Hurricane Dora Max Cat 4, July 18-24 |
There was never a serious threat to the Baja peninsula this year. Statistically speaking, on declining years of El Nino’s we are very likely to have landfall of a tropical cyclone in Baja California Sur. This year we certainly beat the odds. Although this summer provided the usual heat, we had a very few rare days of what I would call ‘hurricane weather’. Our evening winds persisted through late October. Our humidity climbed for a few rare days too, but we never had a spell of hot, humid and still that is so conducive to the formation and maintenance of tropical cyclones.
Our Sea Surface Temperatures remained very close to normal. To those who have only been in Baja a few years, that may seem that we had a ‘cold water year’ particularly to those fishermen out there. However, it was the last 5 years that water temps in the Sea of Cortez were ABOVE normal. In the late fall we did have some warm waters, as much as 2ۣ°C above normal, along certain coastal areas of Baja. The Eastern Pacific basin, where our hurricanes form, remained very close to normal throughout the season.
Hurricane Eugene Max Cat 4, Jul 31- Aug 6 |
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The barometer remained fairly high over the peninsula through the hurricane season as well, a fringe benefit of the dry air that remained over Baja. We had readings of 1012Mb as far south as Cabo San Lucas in August. We are most vulnerable to landfall of a system when our barometer drops below 1010Mb. This was a result of the Pacific High being forced further southeast, around an area of the Pacific Ocean roughly the size of the United States that at one point was 4°- 6°C above normal. Most credible environmental scientists attribute this massive area of over temperature water to the increase burning of fossil fuel by the Chinese. It has been a rapid and 6° is a very dramatic change. It may mean yet another very wet winter for the Pacific coast of North America.
We only issued one Insider Storm Update this year. Hurricane Dora spun from July 18 to July 24. Dora was at one time one of the powerful Major Hurricanes of 2011 but faded quickly when moving northwest. The storm dissipated west of Cabo San Lucas and all Baja received was a few sprinkles.
Hurricane Hilary Max Cat 4, Sept 21-30 |
Lack of landfall of a tropical cyclone is great on one hand and not so good on the other, Baja California Sur’s rainy season in the fall months of tropical cyclones. We get most of our annual rainfall from these storms which have been know to deliver 7” to 28” of rain, in a matter of hours or at most a couple of days. It has been a dry year, with a surprising November storm delivering about 66% of the rain (about 0.5” in 24hrs) that we have had all year. Baja Sur has passing thunderstorms that rage down from the mountains but they too were very rare this season, with the number of rains storms counted on one hand.
It was a drier and cooler hurricane season with more big storms and fewer in number of storms. There were no storm threats to Baja but we missed the rain. In the early season I predicted the landfall of two tropical cyclones this year, I guess I get a zero for that assignment. Both the Labor Day Hurricane and late September Tropical Storm I predicted failed to materialize.
Another important factor was the lack of Tropical Waves that reached the Eastern Pacific. These waves of super stimulated air form in the deserts of North Africa. Only a handful of these waves, which are the seeds for tropical cyclones, made it to the Pacific. Only once all summer did we have two tropical waves active in our basin at one time, very rare.
Scoring the professionals the guys at the National Hurricane Center get high marks for the forecast path prediction. On several occasions here on the Insider our Storm Track graphics showed the evolution of the composite storm track. Each storm this season followed very close to the 5 day forecast track.
I must play Simon Cowell (American Idol, for the reference) for their intensity forecasts however and give them two and a half stars. None of the Major Hurricanes that formed in 2011 were anticipated to become that intense. The NHC also over estimated the capability of two storms in the early season that moved in the direction of Baja. These systems hit cooler, drier air and cooler waters and dissipated without even delivering significant rain, well before reaching Baja.. But nobody is perfect…
My over all score for my Ouija Board, rolling the bones and crystal ball were just slightly better than flipping a coin. I over predicted storm formation, partly because I just couldn’t believe the Eastern Pacific would be that quiet. I do predict that this system, Hurricane Kenneth, with be the last in the Eastern Pacific this year.
My predictions for next year? Whoa, it is way to far out for me to even consult the Netherworld on what is in store 6 months out. I will make the prediction that Hurricane Watch and our Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone coverage will return again May 15, 2012.
Enjoy the ‘Quiet’ Weather Season and thanks for reading!
Tomas
Tomas Zyber
Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial/entertainment analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information and research provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor. For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warnings posted by the National Hurricane Center. or visit the Mexican Nation Metrological website for more information.
