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Hurricane Hysteria – Don't beleive everything you read
With the passing of Hurricane John in this last week in Baja California
Sur, I realize a need to help people to better understand storm and hurricane
forecasting, so there will be less hysteria or panic associated with what
is real and what might be concerning Hurricanes. We at the Baja Insider
try very hard to prepare and not scare people as to what the potential of
these tropical storms and hurricanes are. We use NOAA and the NHC
to provide a majority of the information that we use in our reports and
our tropical updates. This information comes to us in text form as well
as the commonly used satellite, radar, winds and temperature maps and photos.
(Baja Weather,
Tropical Watch &
Weekly Hurricane Watch)
In
the case of Hurricane John, it was reported as a category 4 hurricane when
approximately 700 miles to the south of the tip of Baja and if in fact this
category four hurricane made landfall in Baja, it would be the strongest
storm ever to hit Baja in the history of reporting hurricanes. This,
of course, in light of last year’s hurricanes Katrina in the United States
and Wilma in Cancun Mexico justifiably increased people’s fears rapidly.
However remember this report was when Hurricane John was still days away
from making landfall. Many time as hurricanes get closer to a land mass
or enter cooler water or run into other cooler air masses they will drop
in intensity.
It appeared from the e-mails and the phone calls I personally received concerning
the hurricane that news services such as CNN, The Weather Channel and other
US National news services were possibly hyping the story. We ourselves
at the Baja Insider notified people that this was a category four and could
be the largest storm to hit Baja if it hit
Tom Zyber, co-publisher and Weather Editor, who has been responsible for keeping these reports up to date, advised people that a category 4, potentially the worst storm ever to hit Baja could be eminent. Upon seeing this on our website, we discussed my concerns of hyping and creating hysteria and panic about a storm that had not yet arrived. How can we help prepare people for a hurricane that might occur with such destructive force, while knowing that such a storm is only forecast and may not actually occur? What I pointed out to Tom, while he argued that he had reported exactly what the NHC had advised, that many people did not read the words, “POSSIBLE,” or “FORECAST.” To prove my point, I explained I had already received inquiries and comments from strangers and my own family about the storm that we were experiencing when it was still a beautiful sunny day and at least 24 hours before any rain began.
In my opinion, the news and news people are responsible for reporting what is and not just speculating as to what could be. The hurricane was a category 4, but having lived here for 18 years, I know that many times, these storms or hurricanes do not arrive where forecasted or with as much force as forecasted, yet we still want to be sure to prepare people for what could be the worst. Then as happens many times before hurricane John arrived at Baja, it was downgraded to a category 2. Unfortunately even, a category 2 hurricane can still create devastating damage such as what did occur in Los Barriles, Loreto, and Mulege.
The hurricane reporting agencies such as NOAA and NHC work hard to obtain accurate data which their forecasters will use to create advisories, warnings, and alerts of possible danger. NOAA and NHC also uses computer models in order to forecast what could be. In the case of Hurricane John, the majority of computer models forecasted for the track to go into the sea of Cortez when it was located 800 miles south of Baja. However, there were 2 computer models that showed that it could go out west, south of the Socorro Islands. You can see from this that it is difficult for even the professionals to determine what is actually going to occur. By using an average of these models, it was determined that the tip of Baja would most likely be where the hurricane would make landfall.
While the world news predicted Cabo San Lucas would be a
direct hit, it did not occur. However, it was close considering it
made landfall 40-50 miles north east of the Cabo area. Even after
the storm had passed Cabo San Lucas, I saw a disturbing video on CNN that
explained why so many people were confused about what had actually occurred
in Cabo San Lucas. In this video, they show a large Trimaran sailboat
on land with what appears to be a raging river flowing by. There was
no mention by the reporter of the actual facts concerning this boat and
how it got to where it was. Knowing the owner of the boat, I know
the real story. The boat was removed 2 days before the hurricane on
a trailer that it was not built for in order to protect it. The owner
and crew were in a panic to get it out of the water and while doing so,
the boat flipped on the trailer. The boat was left to sit where it
was, which is at the Cabo Marina boat ramp. 
The International News view
This ramp is an arroyo/river that has been paved and happens to be the lowest point in all of Cabo. Therefore with the rains we received as commonly occurs, we had a river of water flowing to the sea down the boat ramp. The video CNN that aired explained nothing of this and did not show the trailer under the boat, so most people assumed it occurred from the hurricane. The CNN Host asked the reporter where he waited during the storm and he reported that he waited outside. Obviously not concerned about a life threatening situation but many people did not realize that was because we had no hurricane winds and simply had rain in Cabo San Lucas. I believe this type of sensationalism is irresponsible and unnecessary and can become dangerous as is the case of the old fable of crying wolf. When do you know it’s the truth and when do you not know? Many people are still calling and emailing me concerning the devastation in Cabo which is not true.
The view showing the trailer on the trailer days before
What You Can Do To Avoid the Hysteria
I believe it is the responsibility of readers and viewers to keep in mind that when viewing such information that the information may have been sensationalized. Freelance reporters want to have their material published or aired and they are going to look for the biggest story while not always offering the whole truth. During heavy rains like we have had sine the Hurricane, this week we have had more flooding and damage to roads which you can always show to be worse than it actually is.
On another note to travelers and those that live in hurricane areas anywhere in the world, do your friends and family a great service by keeping them informed. I received many phone calls and e-mails from people out of the area trying to reach their friends and family without any knowledge of where those people were staying or what flights or airlines they were traveling on. If you are traveling to a hurricane-prone area during hurricane season, be sure to give a full itinerary to those that may be concerned about your well-being. Secondly, as a traveler or resident in these areas, many times it is easier for you to communicate to them via phone or e-mail as to what is actually happening. I spoke with a woman who had called a hotel numerous times trying to contact her family. The hotel operator was overloaded and they were unable to help her connect with those she was concerned for. However, those people in that hotel could call or e-mail at any time. There was a time after the storm passed that we were without communications which only added to the hysteria compounded by the misinformation of the news services providing inaccurate information.
In closing, I recommend that all people concerned in obtaining accurate information to use NOAA, the NHC and of course the Baja Insider (Tropical Watch) which uses those agencies and does interpret that information as well as provide real time information as we get it.
Better yet sign up for our updates (click here) that will increase with frequency as the storms come closer. Do not just rely on the regular news services that may receive or create sensationalized information to increase viewers. Also people traveling to or that live in hurricane areas keep your loved ones informed so as to help reduce the Hurricane Hysteria. Remember this is just the beginning of our hurricane season so there very possibly could be more to come.
James Glover a Hurricane area resident for over 18 years and loving it. Live and travel safe.