Tropical Cyclone Raymond - Spinning into Oblivion
5 Day Forecast Plot for Raymond
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Eastern Pacific IR Satellite/Surface Chart Image
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Tropical Cyclone Raymond has dissipated, no further updates will be posted to this page.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013 8:36 AM MST Tropical Depression Raymond, once a powerful Category 3 Hurricane, then a tropical storm, now just a depression is wandering the Pacific about 360 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas.
At 07AM MST: Tropical Depression Raymond was centered near 19.7N 114.3W and moving 55° at 05kts. Central barometric pressure is 1007Mb and winds were 30kts with gusts to 40kts. Raymond is on the way out.
Forecasts call for Raymond to wander about southwest of Cabo San Lucas for the next 24hrs and then become another statistic for 2013.
Current GFS precipitation predictions show that precipitation could arrive on Wednesday and become heavy Thursday and into Friday as it moves off to the northeast.
As the graphic above shows, even if Raymond should complete a turn to the northeast the threat to Baja would probably be in the form of cloudy skies and rain. Since the 26°C thermo cline, indicated in red, puts a great deal of cold water between a Baja landfall and Raymond, it would be very unlikely that the system could arrive here as a tropical cyclone. After traveling at least a couple of days over some pretty cool water, and into some dry air, the energy from Raymond would probably be dissipated long before our shores.
To put perspective on the various categories of cyclones:
This season we have had an exceptional number of tropical cyclones with 17 consecutive tropical depressions becoming named systems, when 'normal' for the last decade has been around 13 per year. However, with 9 of those systems only becoming tropical storms, prior to Raymond this season has produced the fifth lowest ACE (Accumulated Hurricane Energy) of any season since 1965,
Raymond is now the most powerful storm of the season, having dispersed more than twice as much energy as Tropical Storm Manuel. By the time Raymond dissipates it is likely to have released more energy than all 9 previous tropical storms this season combined!
Fortunately for Baja, only two Major Hurricanes, Category 3 to be exact, have ever made landfall in Baja since 1948, both in the late 1980's during a particularly active period in the Eastern Pacific.