Hurricane Jova
It has been 52 years since a Major Hurricane made landfall in the region likely to take the impact of Jova. In 1959 an unnamed hurricane between Category 2 and 4 struck the region. The last hurricane to make landfall in this region was also some time ago, both Eugene in 1987 and Calvin in 1993 were Category 2 Hurricanes in July. At this time the storm is taking aim at the popular cruising destination of Barra de Navidad.
The news for the region may have a bright side as Tropical Storm Irwin is now forecast to turn to the south and dissipate offshore. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be much less significant for the region which will already be saturated by Jova.
In the last 15 years Baja has only seen the landfall of four Category 2 storms, Jimena in 2009 and Norbert in 2008 struck along the sparely inhabited Comondu region of the Pacific side of Baja Sur. Norbert was the longest lived, maintaining Category 2 intensity all the way across the peninsula, emerging in the Sea near Loreto. John in 2006 was only briefly a Category 2 when it stormed ashore on the southern edge of East Cape, and was quickly downgraded to a Category 1. Hurricane, Marty in 2003 came ashore very near the same location as John and too was quickly downgraded to a Category 1 once over land. Only two Major Hurricane (category 3 or greater) have made landfall in Baja since 1949; Hurricane Kiko in 1989 and Hurricane Paul in 1982 both made landfall in different portions of East Cape.
The next update to this page will take place after the 9PM release from the NHC or when the storm status changes.
5 Day Forecast Plot for Jova
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Eastern Pacific Storm Floater Satellite - Jova
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Eastern Pacific Storm Floater IR Satellite - Jova
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Hurricane Jova has dissipated. No further updates will be posted to this page until historical data is available.
Thursday, October 13, 2011 7:45 AM MDT Hurricane Jova has weakened just sightly and is now a Caategory 2 Hurricane approaching landfall on the southwest coast of Mexico. Jova is currently abou 70 miles WSW of Manzanillo or about 421 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Hurricane Jova is a Category 2 Hurricane and surf in excess of 12' and outter rain bands are already battering the coastal areas. Jova is slowly losing intensity and is now expected to make landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane somewhere near Barra de Navidad this evening.
Other than heavy surf along southeast facing beaches Jova is not likely to significantly affect Baja weather at this time.
This is a very dangerous storm headed for landfall on the southwest coast of mainland Mexico. This is likely to be a significant natural disaster and orders to evacuate should be taken seriously.
Hurricane Jova is currently located near 18.7N 105.3W and is moving 30° at 5kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 973Mb and winds are 85kts with gusts to 105kts, making Jova a Category 2 Hurricane. Jova is another small storm, like last month's Hurricane Hilary. Hurricane force winds extend out 15 miles, tropical storm force winds extend out as much as 90 miles and 12ft seas extend out as much as 300 miles.
The Pacific coast of Mexico has so far this season been spared landfall of a hurricane. Jova stands to make amends for that oversight and will plow into the southwest coast of Mexico sometime Tuesday night. Should Jova make landfall as a Major Hurricane wide spread destruction can be anticipated along the coast from storm surge to 15'. Wide spread flooding and extensive wind damage will occur. In short, this will be a major natural disaster. Orders to evacuate should be observed.
Jova will be the 5th Major Hurricane of 2011. Normally the Eastern Pacific spawns 3.2 Major Hurricanes per year.
