Hilary is dissipating well west of the Baja peninsula and although we may get some rain from the remains of this system, not significant impact will occur. No further updates to this page will be posted until historical data is available.

AT 09AM MDT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

HILARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COLD WATER....

Thursday, September 29, 2011 11:09 AM MDT Tropical Storm Hilary is weakening rapidly and is now a some 690 miles west southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Hilary has crossed the 26°C thermo cline and will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression later today. The remains of Hilary are already drifting to the East northeast and are bringing cloudy skies and the increased chance of showers to parts of Baja California Sur as early as this afternoon.

Hurricane Hilary is currently near 20.4N 120.3W and is moving 320° at 06kts. Central barometric pressure is 1003Mb and winds are 40kts to 50kts, making Hilary a moderate Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm force winds extend out 80 miles in the NE quadrant. Twelve foot seas extend out as much as 180 miles.

Tropical Storm Hilary is forecast to continue moving to the NNW through the day today dissipate quickly over cold waters. By Sunday the storm should be gone. As the system breaks apart it will drift to the east north east and provide clouds and the chance of showers, particularly afternoon thunderstorms to many places along the Baja peninsula through early next week. No significantly inclement weather is anticipated.

As the system moves further west the surf conditions have improved slightly, with increasing wave period. Surf should also disappear by late in the weekend.

The once Category 4 dangerous Hurricane traveled across most of our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin. Although this week's SST analysis chart was compiled from data at the peak of Hilary's force the cooling effect of the storm was not entirely captured. Hurricanes are nature's method of redistributing tropical energy away from the equator and Hilary will be shown to have done a heck of a job. With just 10-15 days left in the Baja hurricane season (the Eastern Pacific Season runs through November 30) Hilary could likely be the last storm to have posed a threat to Baja.

Looking at the Computer Models

Below is an animated graphic showing the early evolution of the computer generated storm tracks.

We always advise against looking at individual models, as the consensus model issued by the NHC and adapted for the Insider ( top right) is constructed with human judgment, knowing the strengths and weaknesses of each forecast model.

The below computer models are an excellent example of why NOT to look at individual models. Compare the accuracy of the consensus track model upper right with the wild wanderings of the individual models shown below.

Hilary Forecast Track Evolution
(Click to Enlarge)