At 03PM MDT from the National Hurricane Center...

BEATRIZ WEAKENING QUICKLY...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

June 21, 2011 2:50 PM Beatriz, once a Category 1 hurricane as it moved along the southern coast of Mexico has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Beatriz is expected to continue weakening quickly as it moved over cooler waters. Beatriz has picked up forward speed and has turned to the west. Interaction with land, the rate of turn and cooler waters have all added to the quick demise of Beatriz. The storm will cross the all important 26°C themo cline early tomorrow and should lose cyclonic action shortly there after.

Beatriz should have no significant affect on Baja weather except for the increased possibility of afternoon showers and cloudy skies near the weekend.

Hurricane Beatriz is currently located near 19.0N 106.5W and is moving 275° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is 995Mb with winds 50kts with gusts to 60kts. Tropical storm force winds extend out 60 miles. Beatriz has begun to diminish and is now a solid Tropical Storm.

Because Beatriz is a large diameter storm it is likely the very tip of the Baja peninsula will experience cloudy skies and a potential of rain, particularly in higher elevations late in the week. Significant effects of the storm, other than large surf on south facing beaches, is unlikely.

Because of the dry and relatively cold air mass over Baja and the sub 26°C waters between Baja and the storm it is unlikely that Baja will experience a tropical cyclone landfall.

Forecasts call for Tropical Storm Beatriz to continue weakening over the next 48hrs as it moves harmlessly off into the Pacific.

Model Forecast Tracks- Beatriz
(Click to Enlarge)

The National Hurricane Center advises users against looking at individual models. Individual modeling software has its strengthens and weaknesses, the composite model produced by the NHC and seen on our site overlaid to the Sea Surface Temperatures above right takes these factors into account. Over the past 8 years the 3 day path prediction has resulted in an estimated 89% accuracy and the 5 day forecast about a 68% accuracy.

Storm intensity forecasts have not proved as accurate.

The next update to this page will follow the 9PM MDT release from the NHC.