Information on Tropical Storm Andres

From the National Hurricane Center in Miami

06/24/09 12PM MDT...ANDRES IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES NO LONGER HAS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.

06/24/2009 12:00PM MDT Andres has weakened back to Tropical Low as it moves NW some 350 miles SE of Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Depression Andres is forecast to not last through the day today before dissipating.

Andres is located near 21.5N 107.6W and is currently moving 360° at 13kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 1008Mb and winds are 25kts with gusts to 35kts. Andres is forecast to dissipate entirely, possibly as late this afternoon.

Andres ceased to be a tropical cyclone at noon on June 14. Andres was downgraded to Tropical Storm status at 9PM on 5/23. Andres was upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane status on the afternoon of 6/23, Andres became the first tropical cyclone and named storm of 2009 on 6/21 at 8PM as it moved NNW along the mainland Mexico coastline. This is the latest formation of the season first storm in 51 years. The current Sea Surface Temperatures are from 1°C to 2°C above normal in the southern Sea of Cortez.

We will continue to update this information with every new release from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The next update should issued around 6PM local time.

Editorial Comment: Anyone that has lived in Baja through a tropical cyclone season would anticipate that a tropical cyclone strike on Baja this early in the season is improbable. In addition to the SST's being barely warm enough to support cyclonic activity the air mass over Baja Sur is currently FAR to dry and cold to support a storm strike. Humidity will undoubtedly rise as the system approaches, but the system should 'dry out' long before reaching Baja. I will go out on a limb to suggest we will not see more than cloudy skies from this event.

Previously, the earliest landfall of a tropical cyclone in Baja is July 22, and the earliest landfall of a hurricane is August 15. The latest season tropical cyclone landfall is Oct 17.

We will again forward the caution from the National Hurricane Center regarding observation of individual forecast track models. The various models are scientifically composited to deliver the familiar graphic shown above right. and show the most acurate projection of the storms path. NHC path forecasts have proved very accurate over the last 5 years although intensity forecasts have not proved as accurate. Professional consider looking at individual models as 'foolish' (*Pete Davis NHC author)

TZ