09/07/2008 1:36 PM MDT Tropical Storms Lowell has strengthened slightly overnight as it moves WNW some 280 miles WSW of Manzanillo or about 410 miles SSE of Cabo San Lucas. Early forecasts anticipate that Lowell will remain a tropical storm as it moves NW into the Pacific and long range forecasts indicate this morning the TS Lowell may turn to the NE and head toward a rendezvous with Baja California Sur next weekend.

Topical Storm Lowell is currently located near 17.2N 108.1W and is moving 300° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is estimated at 998Mb and winds are 40kts with gusts to 50kts. Forecasts now call for Lowell to remain a tropical storm through the 5 days forecast period. The most significant change to the forecast for us here in Baja is that now Lowell is expected to turn NE, back in our direction by mid week.

Although current forecasts have Lowell turning back toward Baja mid week, it would not arrive in Baja until next weekend. In terms of hurricane forecasting, that is still a lifetime away and much can develop (or dissipate) in that time period.

We would again caution readers against assessing the storm's path based on one track model. Weather professionals consider that an uniformed statement as the models are all designed to compliment each other and balance software deficiencies.

Lowell is not expected to develop hurricane intensity through the 5 day forecast period for two reasons. Over the next 46hrs Lowell will be suppressed by strong mid and upper level winds. By late Tuesday, Lowell is forecast to move over cooler waters, which will impede development beyond storm intensity.

The current 5 day forecast indicating Lowell will turn back in our direction makes some significant assumptions about the storm's behavior long range. When a tropical cyclone makes such a dramatic turn as is forecast for Wednesday, much energy is removed from the system. we will continue to follow the developments of Lowell closely. However, at this time the arrival of additional rain in Baja Sur would not be a bad thing as the area is still under drought conditions.

Tropical Storm Lowell, on the evening of 09/06, formed from an area of disturbed weather that had been moving west from the mainland for about 36hrs.

Automated Information from the NHC

This information will be updated automatically and instantly from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, once the named system becomes active.

Storm Specific Information for Lowell