2007 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook - Beginning the Season

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The Baja Insider Weather Maps are now legendary. With the brightly colored arrows and original overlay views our maps make the weather easier to understand. We overlay the Surface Chart on the Infrared Satellite Image and on the Weekly SST Analysis image. Throughout the Hurricane Season we will track areas of disturbed weather, tropical waves and the movement of the ITCZ and of course the all important 26°C thermo cline. These maps will make it easier for our readers to associate the variables that cause weather to threaten Baja.
 

A Quieter than  Normal Year...

So, what does the 2007 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season hold for Baja? Well, if anyone knew that for sure, they would make a lot of money working for insurance companies. Last year Dr Grey and the National Hurricane Center got caught 'crying wolf'. 2006 forecasts called for the Atlantic to have a heavy season with 192% of the normal crop of hurricanes. As it turned out, the Atlantic was quieter than normal, a 67% error. Some even thought it meant global warming wasn't real. Not hardly, it just meant that forecasting models still have a bit to understand when it comes to long range forecasting.

Read about Historical Hurricanes in Baja compiled from the last 58 years of Hurricane Data from the NHC

This year the Mexican National Weather Services has called for the hottest summer on the Baja peninsula in 90 years. The Sea of Cortez will probably hit record temperatures as well. This means that these warm waters will be even more attractive to the formation and direction of tropical cyclones (see "The Sea Sucks")

The good news is that due to a slight La Nina condition and the circulation patterns forming early this year in the Pacific, we are expected to get 1 fewer than average tropical cyclone formations and half the number of major hurricanes. (hurricanes greater than Category 3) This is good news, as Baja Sur has only been hit with one Major Hurricane in 1989 – Kiko which roared ashore on East Cape when the population of the area was much smaller than it is now. It is possible that sometime in the future another of these major storms will make landfall in Baja. For those who have experienced Cat 1 and 2 storm, don't be complacent, a major hurricane is a whole new game. But we'll look at that later in the season.

The Weather Service report draws analogous data from the years 1964, 1966, 1988 and 1995. In reviewing the stated similar years I found half of them to be La Nina years and the other to be El Nino years. I failed to see how the early season data could be similar to both.

These early season reports for the Eastern Pacific have a very good batting average. Last year the forecast proved 97% accurate while over the last 7 years the reports have held to an 87% accuracy rating.

Like last year, this year is also a very slight La Nina year. This means water south of the equator off the coast of South America, is slightly colder than normal. Usually, the Eastern pacific basin experiences fewer hurricanes in a La Nina year. The graphic on the left shows storm formations in El Nino and La Nina years. As you can see, Baja is better off in La Nina years.  However, this data may be out the window, as California received record rainfall in a La Nina year, which would normally be dry for the state.

The Eastern Pacific has water above the magic 26°C Sea Surface Temperature year round. However, it's somewhere around the middle of May that tropical waves begin to form in the deserts of Africa and make their way across the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific. Thus begins our hurricane season. Now, there are parts of the western Caribbean that are constantly above 26°C as well. But, the ITCZ is too far south in May to deliver the tropical waves to that warm water region of the Caribbean. In 2006 we waited until May 27th for the first tropical cyclone to form while in 2005 a freak storm formed in the first two days of the season and came ashore in the usually hurricane free country of El Salvador on May 17th.

So, that's the good news for those of us that live or have property in Baja California Sur. But it's also wise to remember, it's not just the number and severity of the storms but their track as they move toward Baja Sur. it is unlikely that we will see any tropical cyclone activity until after mid August. But it only takes one to take a path over Baja to change all the bets. So stay tuned. Each week we will look at the potential for storms and keep you posted on those that might threaten our magnificent peninsula in our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch..

Our Eastern Pacific Hurricane Watch is an editorial analysis of data from the National Hurricane Center, NASA and NOAA and is based on information provided by the same, but is an amateur endeavor.  For actual storm information readers should refer to notices and warning posted by the National Hurricane Center.

In the chart below we identify tropical cyclones that have made landfall or passed significantly close enough to have dramatic impact on Baja conditions. The largest loss of life in Baja occurred with Hurricane Lisa, a Cat 3 Hurricane that passed up the Sea to landfall on the mainland. The only Cat 3 storm to make landfall in Baja was Kiko in 1989.