Hurricane Max Eastern Pacific 2005

Information on Tropical Storm Max 2005.

04PM MDT 21/09/05 Tropical Storm Max has passed beyond the Baja Threat Zone. No further updates will be posted until historical data is available

Max is fading away and has been reduced to a Tropical Storm as it heads into the colder waters of the Pacific  Max is currently located at 21.7N 121.2W and movement is 280° at 04kts. Winds are 45kts with gusts to 55kts with central barometric pressure estimated at 997Mb.

Hurricane Max was originally forecast to become a hurricane only briefly before moving over cooler waters. But Max has managed to remain a hurricane for more than 48hs. Forecasters noted 19/09 that despite the fact the storm is over sub 26°C, strong convection within the storm's core is still occurring. The current forecasts indicate that the storm continue to diminish through the five day forecast period.

Hurricane Max is expected continue moving westward in the forecast period and is unlikely to affect Baja Weather. This storm is providing some excellent surf for W and SW facing beaches mid to late week.
(See Surf Forecasting) I had a report today from a friend who surf Ceritos. He reported some of the biggest and best waves he ahs seen at that venue.

There is sub 24°C water between the storm's current position and Baja California. Therefore, it would be difficult for Max to reach Baja, even with a radical turn, as a tropical cyclone.

This system is larger than Tropical Storm Lidia and, over a period of 24hrs, absorbed the smaller system. What remains of Lidia, a tropical depression, moved the the NW and dissipated.

Max moved more northward than the flurry of previous systems since Enrique which all moved nearly due west. A large ridge of high pressure which has run east/west and forced these systems to move along the ITCZ westward is breaking down east to west. The rate at which this ridge deteriorates will effect how close this storm will pass to Baja California.
 

Adrian • Beatriz • Calvin • Dora • Eugene • Fernanda • Greg • Hilary • Irwin • Jova • Kenneth • Lidia • Max • Norma • Otis
 

Statistically Safe from Max?

Shown left is a graphic from the NHC Storm Plotter of all recorded storm tracks since 1950 where the storm passed within 150 miles of Tropical Storm Max's current position. Only Tropical Storm Olivia in 1967 ever made Baja Landfall. Olivia as a freak anyway, striking Baja first from the west, north of Todos Santos. When the storm emerged in the Sea of Cortez, it became Hurricane Olivia. The Hurricane then turned nearly 120° and struck Baja from the east near Loreto. NOAA Historical Storm Plotter  - Caution: this is large page site. Not recommended for Dial-up users. Very Cool!