Saturday November 17 2018

  • 5 Day Tropical Forecast for the Eastern Pacific

 

11-06-18  The Tropical Cyclone Season in the Eastern Pacific is winding down. There is currently no tropical cyclone activity forecast in the next 5 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

11-06 5AM Posting from the National Hurricance Center

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Tue Nov 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

There are some fundamentals we can pretty much accept about this time of year. First, there is a waning amount of energy in the Eastern Pacific after the middle of October, so even the systems that don't threaten the peninsula and move to the west-northwest into the open Pacific tend to be lesser systems. Tropical Waves in the Eastern Pacific after the third week of October are rare. 

Second. the waters surrounding the peninsula have already begun to cool and north winds havee blown out the heat and humidity of what most of us would call 'the hurricane season weather'. So our local conditions would be more destructive to approaching systems. It would be nearly impossible for us to see a powerful hurricane like 2005 John or 2014 Odile reach Baja or even form in the Eastern Pacific this late in the season

We just endured a very active period of the Madden Julian Oscillation convection phase, these two current developing areas are the trailing edge result. Soon the Eastern Pacific will calm along the ITCZ and soon the tropical cyclone focus will shift to the Southwestern Pacific. 

So, with three revisions to the forecast for what once wanted to become Tropical Cyclone Yolanda it now appears the system moving in the general direction of the tip of the Baja peninsula will even have difficulty achieving Named Storm status. Again, quoting long range forecasts I only see development to the high end of the Tropical Depression scale, when the system is still 300-450 miles south of the peninsula. Subject to change, the current forecasts have the system banking slowly westward and dissolving into a Post Tropical Low by November 7, well to the southwest of the peninsula. 

The southbound folks in the Baja Ha-Ha may get a rough ride from Turtle Bay south and it looks like they will be facing a stiff headwind when bettering Cabo Falso, but it now seems unlikely the flotilla of more than 130 boats won't face Tropical Storm Conditions.  Stay safe gang!

So what do I see in the week ahead/ Well, since we are so late in the season let's look a little further than just 7 days. I was not comfortable with a forecast on 10-30 that put a Tropical Storm as far north on the Pacific coast as far north as San Ignacio. The colder waters of the northern Pacific have already begun to push south, although the 26°C thermocline still reaches as far north as Magdalena Bay. We still may get some rain from this developing system, but much more than that is unlikely. In a way, Tropical Cyclones are prima donnas and don't care much of weather influences other than their own. As we move into winter the more dramatic winter weather up north makes tropical cyclone formation less likely. 

But what do I know? Mother Nature has proven herself unpredictable over the last few years...

Tomas

When does the Baja Tropical Cyclone Season End?

Enjoy your day... 


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