Wednesday June 20 2018

Thursday June 12, 2018 Tropical Storm Bud continues to hold onto Tropical Storm status just about 60 miles southwest by south of Cabo San Lucas at noon. Forecasts call for the system to make landfall very close to Cabo San Lucas with winds 35-40kts as just barely a Tropic al Storm. The system will then move north across the peninsula to pass just east of La Paz as a Tropical Depression with winds 30-40kts overnight. The system is then forecast to make landfall again on the Mexican mainland as a nearly extinct Tropical Depression. 

 The Madden Julian Oscillation comes from the Indian Ocean We have seen some of the largest and most powerful MJO 'waves' come earlier in the last 5 years. The last really big/early gave us the record breaking Blanca, the earliest to hit Baja by about 70 days in 2015. Bud will get honorable mention by beating it by about 60 days. The wave that caused these three (Aletta, bud and the next one) is now stirring up things over the Yucatan.

The good news is there is about a 2-3 week 'flat spot' in the MJO, but an oscillation of convection coming after that that is one of the most powerful and largest recorded. (currently over the China Sea) Look for another flurry of storms in the Eastern Pacific and more early and more powerful threats in the weeks ahead.

Our major cities bounce back pretty quickly after a storm of this projected intensity, but having a little extra clean water and some cash on hand is never a bad idea. Avoid the large surf with significant undertow, never be the first to cross a flooded paved arroyo, and just don't cross a flooded unimproved arroyo. Stay away from large glass windows directly facing the path of the storm and to cover just about everything else, avoid doing something stupid. 

With a Baker's Dozen hurricanes under my belt, just stick to those simple rules, particularly the last one, and enjoy witnessing the fury of Mother Nature.

Looks like we're gonna get some weather folks. 

Tomas

Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names for 2018
 

Tropical Storm Carlotta
DISSIPATED

Fabio Ileana Lane Olivia Sergio Wila
Hurricane Aletta MAX: H3
DISSIPATED
Daniel Gilma John Miriam Paul Tara Yolanda
Hurricane Bud MAX: H4
DISSIPATED
Emila Hector Kristy Norman Rosa Vincent Zeke

 

 


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