Saturday October 10 2015

Weather Forecast for the Baja California Peninsula


Baja Weather Synopsis


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10/09/15 Friday, 10:45AM MDT Across the northern hemisphere we have been seeing unusual weather patters that seem to regularly baffle computer modeling. An accurate long range forecast has been reduce to about two or three days. The path of the developing Low to our southwest has changed radically and now the rain system that was forecast to move across the tip of the peninsula to the northeast into the mainland is now forecast to move toward the tip of the peninsula, then turn north-northwest and move along the west coast of the peninsula. We still stand to see some heave rain over the weekend and into the first of next week as this system passes. With less reliability the models are predicting our first norther of the season in the Sea of Cortez, about 7 week ahead of normal. Although not a true norther in the winter sense, this will be cause be a developing 1008Mb Low at the mouth of Sea and a 1028 High located just north of the 4 Corners region of the US. Winds could blow 15-20kts in the Sea on Wednesday.


On the Tropical Watch we have newly formed Tropical Depression 18E, but it is so far to our southwest that it will enter the Central Pacific basin within 24hrs and poses no threat to the peninsula. The interesting weather feature is this rain that is suppose to approach over the next 72hrs. It is an unusual path for weather to approach Baja, and there is an outside chance it could develop into something more, but upper level winds are forecast to hamper development. Humidity will soar in the south over the weekend and there will be a likelihood of thunderstorms in much of Baja California Sur through Monday. We will follow the development of this system, even if it doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone it could bring substantial rainfall to parts of Baja.


In Baja California, Ensenada is expecting a lovely weekend, time to explore the coast or take a trip to wine country in the Guadalupe Valley as temps will be in the low to mid 80's. In Mexicali it will be sunny today and partly cloudy tomorrow and warm with temps through the weekend just over the 100°F mark. In San Felipe look for sunny today and tomorrow, partly cloudy Sunday and Monday with temps right around the 90°F mark.


In Baja California Sur, San Ignacio can expect sunny skies today with the threat of thunderstorms on Saturday, cloudy Sunday and a good chance of rain, possibly heavy at times Monday. In Loreto it will be sunny today, and partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend with the good chance of thunderstorms in the afternoons through Monday. In La Paz we have partly cloudy and temps are expected to rise to the mid to upper 80s through the weekend with a strong chance of afternoon thunderstorms through the period. The bad news in the south is summer isn't over year, the end of next week may bring temps very close to triple digits again. In Cabo San Lucas it will be partly cloudy today with increasing clouds into the weekend and a very good chance of afternoon thunderstorms through the period. Temps will be in the mid 80's through the weekend, warming into the end of next week again with possibly one more gasp of summer heat coming through next weekend.


On the world weather front winter is beginning to show its face in the northern hemisphere. A massive low pressure weather system is developing in the arctic circle that would be a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane if it were in the tropics. With barometirc pressures expected to fall to the 950mb level over the next 120 hrs this system will affect weather from the northern coast of Alaska to the British Isles and draw winds from as far south along the Eastern Seaboard as Virginia. Winds 50-70 miles per hour are forecast as much as 400 miles from the storm center. Be glad you are in Baja! Enjoy your day...

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