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Swine Flu in Baja - The Outbreak of H1N1 in Mexico
UPDATED 5/17/09
There has been but one reported case of A/H1N1 virus in Baja California Sur and
the infected person was not critical and has been isolated voluntarily until
the period of contagiousness passes. There are no new reported cases of the virus following the initial case reported in Mexicali in the first days of the outbreak. There have been no additional deaths in Mexico from the disease.
There are currently more active swine flu cases in California alone than in all of Mexico. The largest number of cases reported in the world so far are in the United States and only one death has so far been attributed to the disease in the US.
It appears the health scare was a great case of 'crying wolf' by the American media and WHO reacting with unrestrained vigor. (World Health Organization)
There has been an outbreak of a new virus initially named "Swine Flu" that appears to have originated near Veracruz, Mexico several weeks ago. Epidemiologists have traced the first know case of this new virus to a young boy in La Glorieta, which is located near one of Mexico's largest pig farms. The influenza spread rapidly in the dense urban population of Mexico City and has now begun to spread world-wide. More than 150 deaths were originally attributed to the flue. However WHO revised the numbers drastically downward Wednesday afternoon and report 7 confirmed deaths in Mexico from the flu and as of this morning the USA had it's first confirmed death, a 2 year old who had traveled to Texas from Mexico.
Link to Google Map of Reported A/H1N1 Virus cases
Mexico, with 97 confirmed cases Thursday, showed the biggest increase in the world, WHO said. There were 26 confirmed cases Wednesday.
The higher totals do not necessarily mean that incidence of the disease is increasing, but rather that health investigators are getting through their backlog of specimens, said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general of WHO.
Wednesday morning the World Health Organization raised the threat level for a potential pandemic to 5, on a 1 to 6 scale. This indicates that the flu is readily being transmitted from human to human and the chance of a world wide spread of this flu is becoming likely. Spokesmen for WHO stated that it is not possible to contain this outbreak, as it has already spread beyond so many borders, but efforts will be made to mitigate the effects of the flu. It does not expect that any borders will be closed or that travel will be restricted to any region of Mexico or the world. The disease as of the writing of this article as spread to more than 10 countries and 4 continents.
Mexico will close government offices, schools and many businesses as of Friday, May 1 through May 5th. However, this is not terribnly significant, as the 1st and 4th are both national holidays and this will provide an extended weekend for many employees. Schools nationwaide are currently close until May 6th.
What is a Pandemic?
The World Health Organization defines the possibility of a pandemic when three events in the development of a virus occur:
Emergence of a disease new to a population.
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Agents infect humans, causing serious illness.
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Agents spread easily and sustainably among humans.
It is becoming increasingly likely that this H1N1 Flu Virus will reach pandemic proportions. The government of Mexico and private interests have made moves to mitigate the effects of this virus. Schools have been shut down nation wide until May 6th and public gatherings in Mexico City have been suspended. Note that this is a holiday week here in Mexico and schools and businesses would be closed Monday anyway and many business will close Friday for the Labor Day celebrations. Here in Baja the Cinco de Mayo celebrations in Rosarito Beach have been canceled.
Last night here in La Paz one of the most popular restaurants in the areas served only a handful of customers. This time, usually very popular with Mexican tourists has been particularly slow with the one two punch of the flu and the economy. Flights in and out of La Paz have a significant number of empty seats. Those to Mexico City were virtually empty.
The H1N1 Virus in Perspective
First, let us note that no one is predicting the Apocalypse as a result of this outbreak of Swine Flu. Since there are no other significant events currently breaking around the world, the press has jumped all over this story and brought panic to millions around the world. Looking at the facts, the level of hysteria is unjustified.
H1N1 Flu virus is a new virus, meaning that it has recently mutated from a previously known virus or series or viruses. Researchers have found human, pig and avian DNA present in the makeup of H1N1. Since it is new to the scene, there will be little or no immunity amongst humans to the new virus. H1N1 is an influenza - it is not the "Black Death", Small Pox or Polio. Although the mortality rate for the virus initially appear to be significantly higher than a standard outbreak of the flu it appears that this high mortality rate, particularly amongst 25-40 year olds is limited to the Mexico City area and may be a result of other medical and environmental factors present in those who succumbed to the disease.
I was astounded to learn that every year 36,000 people die in the United States as a result of standard influenza. Most of these fatalities are either in the very young or old, or otherwise medically compromised individuals. This was one of the initial concerns for H1N1, that it seems to attack strong and healthy individuals in their prime. WHO is backing away from this concern now, as further studies have been made.
The world wide mortality rate of this new strain of flu does not seem out of line with other strains of the flu virus which attack the world's population every year. We could just be looking at another strain of late season flu that will affect millions world wide with no greater impact that a usual flu season.
Prevention, Containment and Treatment
Surgical masks are virtually sold out in the US and Mexico. In Mexico City, military units are handing out surgical masks on the street in an effort to contain the disease. However, US health experts warn that a standard surgical mask will do little to prevent you from catching the flu. The size of the H1N1 virus will easily penetrate the standard surgical mask. It will however, contain the virus in a person already infected, when they speak, breath or cough.
The mask recommended for some protection from transmission is the N95 Surgical Grade mask. However, if you are not infected this will only protect you from inhalation of the virus. The virus can also infect your through your eyes and ears when wearing the mask. Experts recommend frequent washing of hands or use of hand sanitizer, particularly when using public facilities.
If you are feeling sick - STAY CONFINED. Do not take your co-workers a case of the swine flu just to be a trooper and not miss a day of work or school. Unfortunately, the incubation period for the flu can be 3-5 days allowing 2-3 days where the new host can transmit the disease while not feeling particularly ill. If you feel you are coming down with something don't travel by air and use a surgical mask to contain your respiratory fluids, which spread the flu.
Treatment for the flu includes the usual bed rest and lots of fluids and anti-viral drugs such as Tamaflu are proving effective against the virus. Hospitalization has only been required in a small number of the cases, therefore the epidemic may be already more wide spread than thought and thusly less of an hysteria than painted by the media.
Reports of Swine Flu in Baja
As of the writing of this article there have been three reported cases of the new A/H1N1 virus in Mexicali. There are several cases being investigated in Tijuana as well, but not yet confirmed. As of now, there have been no confirmed cases of Swine Flu in Baja California Sur. Although we feel fortunate here in La Paz, this is unlikely to continue indefinitely.
In a mailer to his clients, Brian Westerland of Diamante Properties in La Paz forwarded this first hand information;
"We have been closely watching the US news, Mexican news and local Baja Sur news , my mother-in-law is the head of the Red Cross for our Baja Sur state and she has been keeping us up to date daily on the new developments here in the Baja Sur and in Mexico City. So far there have been no reported cases in our state, everyone has been taking precautions but common sense and calm is starting to kick in after the initial shock of hysteria provided by the media."
What to Do and How to React
For those of you over 45, you may remember the outbreak of the Hong Kong Flu in 1968 and 1969. The flu was forecast to devastate older or weaker persons and the government went to great effort to stem the spread and produce a vaccine. In the end, only 36,000 people died from the flu while 7,800+ died from reaction to the vaccine. The Hong Kong Influenza ended up being the mildest pandemic of the 20th century.
On the flip side, an Influenza pandemic swept the world in 1918 and was spread world wide for the first time by the returning troops from World War One. Hundreds of thousands died world wide that year, including a young wife who lived at the home later owned by my sister in Vermont. With improved medical treatment and anti-viral drugs available, no one is expecting a repeat of this medical disaster.
As of now, most airlines are offering to waive change fees on all travel to Mexico.
So, keep your head and take the same preventative measures you would take when traveling at the holidays when colds and flu are readily passed around the traveling public. If you contact the flu, limit your exposure to others and seek medical attention promptly should the illness persist for more than 4 days or significant lung congestion and coughing occurs.
