H1N1 Flu is back with back to school flu season….
While many countries are currently announcing around the world there are areas that the H1N1 virus or “swine flu” as it is still being commonly referred to, has begun to reoccur. This is the same for Mexico in general and Baja as in other parts of the world; it is not as dangerous as it sounds. The Mexican government has announced that it could see up to 5 million cases of the swine flu this winter’s flu season and yet while this is a higher projection than in the past, according to what Secretary Jose Angel Cordova told Televisa on September 17th, that in the worst case scenario deaths could reach 2,000.
Mind you this is 2000 deaths projected out of a population of 107 million and last year alone the common flu killed 36,000 Americans. So while H1N1 is still a pandemic (meaning widespread) and is obviously not gone; not all people die from it by any means. In fact here in the Los Cabos region they have seen an increase in some cases, as many other areas of the world and yet only a few children have died from it. As school children head back to school around the world the contagiousness of this disease will increase the cases throughout the winter all over the world.
I wanted to see if there were any travel warnings concerning H1N1 and travel to Mexico and according to the U.S State department there are no new warnings and it only shows that May 15th they lifted the warnings about nonessential travel to Mexico. In other words while H1N1 is still spreading more in some areas than others both Mexico and the U.S. governments seem to feel there is no great danger if you take care of yourself as in any flu season.
According to the Center for Disease Controls the likely hood of death is very small as you can see quoted directly from their website. Analysis of material by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention by Dr. Russell Blaylock. (September 5, 2009);
Death Rates from the H1N1 Flu in the U.S.
• Only 43,771 cases have been reported in the United States. Because of poor reporting the CDC estimates that true numbers indicate that one million have been infected. Many people did not get sick enough to go to a doctor. Likewise, not all people are tested who go to a doctor.
• Of these 5,011 have been hospitalized and 302 have died.
• If we use the 43,771 figure and 302 deaths that means the death rate is 0.6 percent, an extremely low death rate for any flu.
• The percentage of hospitalized patients who died was 6 percent, again a very low incidence of death.
• Since the CDC estimates that one million have been infected, we must recalculate death rates. Using this more accurate figure, the death rate is in truth 0.03 percent, which means 99.97percent will not die from this flu. Your chances of dying are incredibly low.
It is difficult to see exactly the numbers here in Mexico due to poor reporting and that many people that were thought to have died solely from the H1N1 virus had other health issues and or the people did not go to the doctors or have been tested when they do go. Below is some more information from the CDC concerning any seasonal flu and existing medical conditions:
CDC studied the hospital records of 268 patients hospitalized with novel H1N1 flu early on during the outbreak. The analysis found that the prevalence of selected underlying conditions was significantly higher among hospitalized novel H1N1 flu patients compared to the prevalence in the general U.S. populations, except for chronic renal disease and obesity. For example, asthma occurs in 8% of the U.S. population, but 32% of hospitalized novel H1N1 flu patients had asthma. With seasonal flu, underlying medical conditions like asthma, diabetes, heart disease and pregnancy place people at greater risk of serious flu-related complications.(People may have reported one or more underlying conditions.)
What symptoms did hospitalized patients have?
The symptoms of novel H1N1 flu virus in people are similar to the symptoms of seasonal flu, although vomiting and diarrhea has been reported more commonly with H1N1 flu infection than is typical for seasonal flu. CDC studied the hospital records of 268 patients hospitalized with novel H1N1 flu early on during the outbreak. In this early subset of cases with significant clinical data, fever (93%) and cough (83%) were the two most reported symptoms. This is not surprising since cough and fever were part of the case definition. Other symptoms were shortness of breath (54%), fatigue/weakness (40%), chills (37%) and myalgias (muscle soreness) (36%). (See Table below) Severe illnesses and death has occurred as a result of illness associated with this virus.
Table: Symptoms of hospitalized novel H1N1 patients |
|
Symptom |
Number (%) |
Fever* |
249 (93%) |
Cough |
223 (83%) |
Shortness of breath |
145 (54%) |
Fatigue/Weakness |
108 (40%) |
Chills |
99 (37%) |
Myalgias |
96 (36%) |
Rhinorrhea |
96 (36%) |
Sore Throat |
84 (31%) |
Headache |
83 (31%) |
Vomiting |
78 (29%) |
Wheezing |
64 (24%) |
Diarrhea |
64 (24%) |
So obviously if you have any of these symptoms, especially a fever or persistent cough you should go to the doctor, rest and eat lots of fruits and drink plenty of fluids. You may or may not be recommended to use medications but I know of several people that have beaten this fairly easily with lots of rest and eating well. If you have been diagnosed with H1N1 please do everyone else a favor and stay home for the prescribed time and be sure not to be coughing on others. As far as healthy people, be sure to stay away from others coughing, wash your hands regularly and expect for your temperatures to be scanned via thermal photography while traveling through airports.
Basically in all the research I have done I have found very little to alarm anyone past the fact the fall is upon us, that children are back to school and with the winter climate changes coming you should be just as concerned of getting the common flu as much as H1N1.
If there is any serious outbreak in Baja or Mexico that should concern travelers we will let you know but for now rest assured no one is warning against travel to or from anywhere.
For now…Buen Viaje!