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Mexico Travel Warning in Perspective

the peaceful La Paz Malecon

Looking at the Facts...

Updated December 31, 2011 The Mexico Travel Warning from the US Department of Homeland Security has not been updated since April 22, 2011. As to the situation in Baja there were drug related events in both the states of Baja California, where the drug trade has been active in the past and Baja California Sur, which has remained apart from Mexico's drug war. None incidents involved North Americans.

In this article you will find we neither sugar coat the facts nor, using the kindest words I can, "enhance the facts' as many stateside media outlets do to put flash in their headlines.

According to the U.S. Department of State “Travel Warnings are issued to describe long-term, protracted conditions that make a country dangerous or unstable.”

That is just NOT the case on 99% of the Baja peninsula and much of Mexico. To refute Newt Gingrich, Mexico is NOT in a state of civil war, nor as other AM radio personalities might lead you to believe, is the government of Mexico about to succumb to the cartels.

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The updated warning advises against travel to areas in five additional Mexican states: Jalisco, Nayarit, San Luis Potosi, Sonora and Zacatecas.

The warning includes a major highway into Monterrey where suspected drug gangs shot two U.S. customs officials in February, killing one of them.

Travelers also are warned by the DHS to defer nonessential travel to the states of Tamaulipas and Michoacán and to parts of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sinaloa, Durango, Northern Baja California and Nuevo Leon.

2011 in Baja

There has been a dramatic reduction in drug related crime in Baja California. The man in charge of government actions in the area has unfortunately for our region, been promoted to a wide position in the drug war. Hopefully the progress made through 2011 will continue.

In Baja California Sur there has previously been very limited evidence of the drug trade and crime. although it has been here, in a very limited way. In 2011 there was a well publized police shootout in Los Cabos and a quadruple homicide. None of these events involve civilians, Mexicans or foriegners, only government or cartel members.

But put this in perspective...

More than 500,000 people now live in La Paz and Los Cabos combined. In any average US city of that size 34 homicides were committed in 2010.

Where there are people, there is crime. A seasoned traveler knows that where you go within a city or pueblo is far more determinate of your safety than what country you visit..

Facts behind the numbers

The US is in fact one of the safer (not safest mind you) of countries with a homicide rate of 6.8 per 100,000. Mexico stands at 13.7 including the drug war murders. If you deduct the drug war combatants Mexico's murder rate is slightly higher than the US at 7.2 per 100,000. (Source US Department of Justice & Mexico's PJR)

By the way, El Salvador was last year's winner as the most dangerous with a murder rate of 76 per 100,000.

In 2011 the City of La Paz commissioned a study which found the tranquil city to be the 3rd safest city of its size in North America.

Don't paint Mexico with a broad brush

There are certainly troubled areas in Mexico due to the high profitability of the drug cartels. Cuilidad Juarez is one of those places. Violence has included murder and kidnapping of US citizens. But Juarez is a long way from Baja.

CD Juarez has been a violent border city dating back more than 100 years. The violence in CD Juarez has escalated to more than 3000 murders in 2010, which is an all time record. The highway between the border and Mexico City has been increasing dangerous as you get closer to the border. I would not travel to Juarez on a bet and neither would most Mexicans.

As representatives of other Mexican businesses we ask that you not paint all of Mexico with the broad brush of violence.

The bottom line is that the bad guys derive nearly all their money from the pockets of American drug consumers. A vast majority of their weapons are believe to come from the US illegally. By NOT giving Mexico a fair shake and continuing to visit Mexico you deprive the good guys of income and tax revenue from tourism. The war against the cartels is expensive and with a diminished tax base Mexico is forced to fight the US's drug war with fewer resources. But they continue to press the cartels into a corner.

Editor's Note

As bad as it may appear in the news, Tijuana is safer than New Orleans, Detroit and Baltimore just to name a few.

Also see: Travel Requirements for Mexico
& Is there a Civil War in Mexico?

Travel Warning Summary

In reading the full document released by the US Department of State on April 22, 2011, there is little or no change to the document other than citing recent incidents and the additional of several mainland states to the mentioned areas of violence.

The newest travel warning for Mexico includes references to incidents in Baja California. Through hard work on the part of the Mexican government both local and federal, the murder rate in TJ was cut in half and is again on a par with Philadelphia, PA. There were in fact more than 400 murders in Tijuana in 2010, most of them were cartel 'employees' or part of the government forces trying to bring them under control.

The new Mexico travel warning made reference to innocent by-standers being killed in the crossfire of gunfights in Baja California. The last deaths I could find in Baja California was in 2007, when an 8 year old boy was killed in a shootout. I found no news reference (and it would have made headlines) of any tourist being killed in crossfire in Baja California. (or elsewhere in Mexico)

There are bad parts of town in every city... stay out of them.

The problems in Mexico are part of the war against drugs initiated in 2006. In 2010 the drug was spread from mostly border areas to Acapulco and Cancun. These unfortunate headlines further dampened Mexico tourism although they did not involve tourists If you remove the 'direct combatants' (cartel members and law enforcement) from the statistics you will find that Mexico's murder rate is only fractional points ahead of the US.

Over the 2011 Christmas holiday an American youth along with two Mexican friends were killed in the mainland state of Michoacán, which has been part of the region affected by drug violence and a long way away from Baja.  This was apparently a good kid that may have just walked into the wrong Christmas party. It made international news. The same weekend 4 tourists were murdered and burned in a US tourist town and it only made local news.

We encourage you to come visit us in Baja.
Baja California - Working hard to regain your trust

In areas close to the border travel has been devastated by the violence in the headlines and passport requirements. Folks without passports can no longer make a day of shopping in TJ or other border towns. With the lack of business, these areas have become more crime ridden. It may be some time before these border areas regain the trust and traffic of North Americans.

Tijuana is one of the cities affected by the cartel wars. more than 400 people died there in 2010 and carjackings and robberies have occurred to American citizens over the past 7 years.

However, investment minded civic officials have worked hard to repair the problems and combat the anti-Mexico propaganda in their regions. Leaders like former Rosarito Beach mayor Hugo Torres improved safety and beat the drum loudly in the media to repair the region's image. Tourism and real estate investment in the region have begun to improve.

Baja California Sur - A Safe Destination

Baja California Sur was specifically omitted from the latest Mexico Travel Warning. One of the safest states in Mexico there were 10 murders in the state last year, making Baja Sur safer per capita than almost all US states.

Headlines on the day of this article are of a murder of a Mexican tourist in the lobby of a Cabo San Lucas resort. The tourist was shot in the back of the head as he walked through the lobby. No potential motive has been released yet. This is an usually rare event in Baja Sur.

There has been incidents of increased youth gang activity in Cabo San Lucas. Bawls and what could best be described as 'group muggings' have occurred late at night in and around Squid Roe in downtown Cabo. Tourists have been injured in these events and police action appears limited.

Avoid Miami because of the violence in New Orleans?

New Orleans is the most deadly city in the U.S. with 64 murders per 100,000 population. Would you not visit Miami because of the violence in New Orleans? Sounds absurd no? Cabo San Lucas is about the same distance from the Mexican violence centers are Miami is from New Orleans.

Mind you, CD Juarez is almost 3 times more dangerous than New Orleans, with a stunning 171 murders per 100,000 population. Didn't John Wayne even make a movie about CD Juarez? Mexicans have know for a long time that Juarez is NOT a tourist destination. Don't make it yours and you will enjoy a delightful trip to many other locations in Mexico.

In 2010 the violence began to spread to other Mexican tourist destinations like Acapulco and Cancun. These acts have not been directed at tourists, but other cartel members or cartel owned businesses such as nightclubs. I could not find any evidence in news archives that any North American tourists were killed.

Petty crime and the occasional robbery do happen, but that is true of ANY tourist destination. No tourist of any nation has been injured in the drug violence since 2007 in Baja California according to any statistics we could find.

Defeating "Mexiphobia"

Travelers should remain alert to their surroundings. Without a doubt, the world wide economic situation has added to petty crimes in tourist areas world wide.

The column on the left contains the portions of the Mexico Travel Warning that apply to travelers of the Baja peninsula and some portions refer to travel in Mexico in general. With all the "Mexico Bashing" going on in the US media let us take a look at the REAL statistics.

Put the numbers in statistical perspective. Mexico is the United states #1 foreign tourist destination and more people will visit Mexico before noon today than visit London in a year. With more than 50,000 people a day visiting Mexico your chance of being involved in a violent act in Mexico are less than half that of being struck by lightening and more unlikely than winning Powerball!

Mexico is dangerous – if you work for the Cartel!

Looking at the statistics, a vast majority of homicides in the Mexican border areas have been inter drug cartel related exclusively although the deaths of U.S. Citizens in Juarez nearly doubled in 2010 to an estimated 64.Some of these victims were innocents. Some also had criminal drug records in the US and some were bi-national business men.

The Travel Warning (left) indicates that "innocent by-standers' have been affected. This includes no foreign visitors. In Tijuana an 8 year old Mexican boy was killed by stray gunfire. In the same 1 year time period 8 Los Angels youths were injured by stray gang gunfire there.

Also See; Civil War in Mexico
What is REALLY happening...

Mexico has become more aggressive in pursuing drug traffickers. This has resulted in some gun battles in both Baja California and Baja California Sur in the last 6 months of 2009. Two of these arrests occurred here in La Paz. No foreigners were injured in these events. The suspects initially resisted the well orchestrated military and police teams with gunfire, but were eventually subdued, arrested and carted off to Federal prisons on the mainland. No innocent parties were injured.

In both states of Baja California and Baja California Sur police or other justice officials have been murdered in retaliation for the additional government pressure on their illegal business.

Kidnapping in Mexico and Baja

Mexico has statistically become the world leader in kidnapping for profit. To a great extent, the focus of this is in Mexico City. Mexican corporate execs, family members and even doctors employed by corporate hospitals have been abducted for the anticipated ransom. Kidnapping and kidnapping attempts have occurred in both states, of locals of profitable targets.

It appears only one of these appeared to be a tourist in Tijuana. As a tourist, kidnappers have no idea what you might be worth in random. Take off the Rolex before you visit, don't appear overly flamboyant and enjoy Baja.

Petty Crime

Travelers should always take precautions against thefts of personal belongings when traveling in their native country or abroad, as thieves everywhere find tourists an easy mark. Just as everywhere in the world during these economic times are tough, petty crime is on the rise here in Baja.

Remember, as the travel warning itself states, hundreds of thousands of US Citizens travel to Mexico every year, and only a handful ever experience a violent or negative incident on their visit. Come Enjoy the Baja peninsula, it is STILL the same great place of your dreams!End Story

Tomas

April 22, 2011 The US Department of State has renewed the Travel Warning for Mexico. The travel warning is very carefully worded and we recommend you read the document with equal care.

To view the full document click here.

It is important to note that despite with glaring headlines in the US decry, the travel statement has not changed significantly since being upgraded to a travel warning in April of 2010.

Below is the official DHS statement with the parts particularly pertaining to Baja California and Baja California Sur.

Travel Warning for Mexico

The Department of State has issued this Travel Warning to inform U.S. citizens traveling to and living in Mexico about the security situation in Mexico. This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning for Mexico dated September 10, 2010 to consolidate and update information about the security situation and to advise the public of additional restrictions on the travel of U.S. government personnel.

Millions of U.S. citizens safely visit Mexico each year, including more than 150,000 who cross the border every day for study, tourism or business and at least one million U.S. citizens who live in Mexico. The Mexican government makes a considerable effort to protect U.S. citizens and other visitors to major tourist destinations. Resort areas and tourist destinations in Mexico generally do not see the levels of drug-related violence and crime reported in the border region and in areas along major trafficking routes. Nevertheless, crime and violence are serious problems and can occur anywhere. While most victims of violence are Mexican citizens associated with criminal activity, the security situation poses serious risks for U.S. citizens as well.

It is imperative that you understand the risks involved in travel to Mexico and how best to avoid dangerous situations. Common-sense precautions such as visiting only legitimate business and tourist areas during daylight hours, and avoiding areas where criminal activity might occur, can help ensure that travel to Mexico is safe and enjoyable. 

General Conditions

Since 2006, the Mexican government has engaged in an extensive effort to combat transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). The TCOs, meanwhile, have been engaged in a vicious struggle to control drug trafficking routes and other criminal activity. According to Government of Mexico figures, 34,612 people have been killed in narcotics-related violence in Mexico since December 2006. More than 15,000 narcotics-related homicides occurred in 2010, an increase of almost two-thirds compared to 2009. Most of those killed in narcotics-related violence since 2006 have been members of TCOs. However, innocent persons have also been killed as have Mexican law enforcement and military personnel.

There is no evidence that U.S. tourists have been targeted by criminal elements due to their citizenship. Nonetheless, while in Mexico you should be aware of your surroundings at all times and exercise particular caution in unfamiliar areas. Bystanders, including U.S. citizens, have been injured or killed in violent incidents in various parts of the country, especially, but not exclusively in the northern border region, demonstrating the heightened risk of violence throughout Mexico.

TCOs, meanwhile, engage in a wide-range of criminal activities that can directly impact U.S. citizens, including kidnapping, armed car-jacking, and extortion that can directly impact U.S. citizens. The number of U.S. citizens reported to the Department of State as murdered in Mexico increased from 35 in 2007 to 111 in 2010. 

The Mexican government has deployed federal police and military personnel throughout the country as part of its efforts to combat the TCOs. U.S. citizens traveling on Mexican roads and highways may encounter government checkpoints, which are often staffed by military personnel. You are advised to cooperate with personnel at government checkpoints and mobile military patrols. TCOs have erected their own unauthorized checkpoints, and killed or abducted motorists who have failed to stop at them.

Violence along Mexican roads and highways is a particular concern in the northern border region. As a result, effective July 15, 2010, the U.S. Mission in Mexico imposed restrictions on U.S. government employees' travel. U.S. government employees and their families are not permitted to drive from the U.S.-Mexico border to or from the interior of Mexico or Central America. Travel by vehicle is permitted between Hermosillo and Nogales. 

While violent incidents have occurred at all hours of the day and night on both modern toll ("cuotas") highways and on secondary roads, they have occurred most frequently at night and on isolated roads. To reduce risk, you are strongly urged to travel only during daylight hours throughout Mexico, to avoid isolated roads, and to use toll roads whenever possible. For more information on road safety and crime along Mexico's roadways, see the Department of State's Country Specific Information.

Due to ongoing violence and persistent security concerns, you are urged to defer non-essential travel to the states of Tamaulipas and Michoacán, and to parts of the states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi and Jalisco. Details on these locations, and other areas in which travelers should exercise caution, are below.

Violence Along the U.S.-Mexico Border

Much of the country’s narcotics-related violence has occurred in the northern border region. For example, since 2006, three times as many people have been murdered in Ciudad Juarez, in the state of Chihuahua, across from El Paso, Texas, than in any other city in Mexico. More than half of all Americans killed in Mexico in FY 2009 whose deaths were reported to the U.S. Embassy were killed in the border cities of Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana.

Since 2006, large firefights have taken place in towns and cities in many parts of Mexico, often in broad daylight on streets and other public venues. Such firefights have occurred mostly in northern Mexico, including Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana, Chihuahua City, Nogales, Nuevo Laredo, Piedras Negras, Reynosa, Matamoros and Monterrey. Firefights have also occurred in Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima.  During some of these incidents, U.S. citizens have been trapped and temporarily prevented from leaving the area.

The situation in northern Mexico remains fluid; the location and timing of future armed engagements cannot be predicted. U.S. citizens are urged to exercise extreme caution when traveling throughout the region, particularly in those areas specifically mentioned in this Travel Warning.

In recent months, DTOs have used stolen trucks to block major highways and thus prevent the military from responding to criminal activity, most notably in the area around Monterrey. Also in Monterrey, DTOs have kidnapped guests out of reputable hotels in the downtown area, blocking off adjoining streets to prevent law enforcement response. DTOs have also attacked Mexican government facilities such as military barracks and a customs and immigration post.

Crime and Violence Throughout Mexico

You should be especially aware of safety and security concerns when visiting the northern border states of Northern Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Much of the country's narcotics-related violence has occurred in the border region. More than a third of all U.S. citizens killed in Mexico in 2010 whose deaths were reported to the U.S. government were killed in the border cities of Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana. Narcotics-related homicide rates in the border states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas have increased dramatically in the past two years.  

Carjacking and highway robbery are serious problems in many parts of the border region and U.S. citizens have been murdered in such incidents. Most victims who complied with carjackers at these checkpoints have reported that they were not physically harmed. Incidents have occurred during the day and at night, and carjackers have used a variety of techniques, including bumping moving vehicles to force them to stop and running vehicles off the road at high speed. There are some indications that criminals have particularly targeted newer and larger vehicles with U.S. license plates, especially dark-colored SUVs. However, victims' vehicles have included those with both Mexican and American registration and vary in type from late model SUVs and pick-up trucks to old sedans. 

Northern Baja California: Targeted TCO assassinations continue to take place in Northern Baja California, including the city of Tijuana. You should exercise caution in this area, particularly at night. In late 2010, turf battles between criminal groups proliferated and resulted in numerous assassinations in areas of Tijuana frequented by U.S. citizens. Shooting incidents, in which innocent bystanders have been injured, have occurred during daylight hours throughout the city. In one such incident, an American citizen was shot and seriously wounded.

While security concerns are particularly acute in the northern border region, you should be aware of situations that could affect your safety in other parts of Mexico.

Safety Recommendations

U.S. citizens who believe they are being targeted for kidnapping or other crimes should notify Mexican law enforcement officials and the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City or the nearest U.S. consulate as soon as possible. Any U.S. visitor who suspects they are a target should consider returning to the United States immediately.  U.S. citizens should be aware that many cases of violent crime are never resolved by Mexican law enforcement, and the U.S. government has no authority to investigate crimes committed in Mexico.

U.S. citizens should make every attempt to travel on main roads during daylight hours, particularly the toll ("cuota") roads, which generally are more secure. When warranted, the U.S. Embassy and consulates advise their employees as well as private U.S. citizens to avoid certain areas, abstain from driving on certain roads because of dangerous conditions or criminal activity, or recommend driving during daylight hours only. When this happens, the Embassy or the affected consulate will alert the local U.S. citizen Warden network and post the information on their respective websites, indicating the nature of the concern and the expected time period for which the restriction will remain in place.

U.S. citizen visitors are encouraged to stay in the well-known tourist areas. Travelers should leave their itinerary with a friend or family member not traveling with them, avoid traveling alone, and check with their cellular provider prior to departure to confirm that their cell phone is capable of roaming on GSM or 3G international networks. Cell phone coverage in isolated parts of Mexico, for example, the Copper Canyon, is spotty or non-existent.

Do not display expensive-looking jewelry, large amounts of money, or other valuable items.  Travelers to remote or isolated venues should be aware that they may be distant from appropriate medical, law enforcement, and consular services in an emergency situation.

U.S. citizens applying for passports or requesting other fee-based services from consulates or the Embassy are encouraged to make arrangements to pay for those services using a non-cash method. U.S. citizens should be alert for credit card fraud, especially outside major commercial establishments.

Demonstrations and Large Public Gatherings

Demonstrations occur frequently throughout Mexico and usually are peaceful. However, even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate to violence unexpectedly. Violent demonstrations have resulted in deaths, including that of an American citizen in Oaxaca in 2006. During demonstrations or law enforcement operations, U.S. citizens are advised to remain in their homes or hotels, avoid large crowds, and avoid the downtown and surrounding areas.

As is always the case in any large gathering, U.S. citizens should remain alert to their surroundings.

For any emergencies involving U.S. citizens in Mexico, please contact the U.S. Embassy or the closest U.S. Consulate.  The U.S. Embassy is located in Mexico City at Paseo de la Reforma 305, Colonia Cuauhtemoc, telephone from the United States: 011-52-55-5080-2000; telephone within Mexico City: 5080-2000; telephone long distance within Mexico 01-55-5080-2000.  You may also contact the Embassy by e-mail at: ACSMexicoCity@state.gov The Embassy's internet address is http://www.usembassy-mexico.gov/.

The Embassy's Internet address is http://www.usembassy-mexico.gov/.

  • Tijuana (Baja California): Tapachula 96, telephone (011)(52)(664) 622-7400.

  • Cabo San Lucas: (Baja California Sur) Blvd. Marina local c-4, Plaza Nautica, col. Centro, telephone (011)(52)(624) 143-3566.

Reply from Mexican Businessmen

The San Diego Union-Tribune reported Sunday that Baja California officials have protested the warnings, saying the broad condemnation of the region doesn't take into account inroads made against the cartels in recent months. 

"U.S. government officials have walked a fine line in recent years, issuing alerts and warnings to protect citizens while simultaneously praising Mexican government efforts to fight the drug cartels. The cartels make their money shipping narcotics to users in the United States and many of the weapons used in the violence are procured legally and illegally from the United States.

The latest warning points out that hundreds of thousands of Americans visit popular tourist destinations in Mexico each year without problems. The language was an attempt to differentiate between resorts such as Cancun and Cabo San Lucas and the violent border regions. However Mexican officials have complained that the travel warnings damage tourism to all parts of the country."

One of our Insider Readers writes:

Thank you so much for your article "Looking at the Facts" regarding the recent panic about travel to Mexico. I will be returning to Merida, Mexico for the third time next week and am frankly sick of fielding questions about safety.

Yes, of course safety is of concern, regardless of where you travel, but being from Chicago, I can say with certainty that I have always felt nothing but absolutely safe in Mexico. I only hope more people are of clear-enough mind to make the trip to Mexico and find that out for themselves

Partial Bibliography

http://www.archives.gov/genealogy/immigration/border-mexico.html
http://www.otaymesa.org/ab_otay/port_of_entry.html
http://www.bts.gov/help/border_crossing_entry_data.htm

Additional Resources

Handling Military Checkpoints in Mexico Mexico Travel Requirements
Baja Road Report
Police Corruption in Baja
Violence in Mexico Againt Tourists