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Mexico Travel Warning in Perspective
Looking at the Facts
Updated March 23, 2009 The column on the left contains the portions of the Mexico Travel Alert that apply to travelers of the Baja peninsula. Since September, 2007 there have been a significant number of stories in the US press regarding incidents involving Mexican travelers, particularly in Baja California ('norte' for the rookies) and that the government is ambivalent or even complicit in these attacks. In 2007 Surf tours and even the Baja 1000 had expressed concern about returning to Baja. A great deal has transpired since then.
First and foremost, let us remember that more Americans will visit Mexico by noon tomorrow than will visit London in a year. A vast majority enjoy that visit without incident. Most of foreign destinations, with the exclusion of Canada, are more dangerous to visit for Americans than is Mexico on an incident per visit ratio.
Secondly, 95% of this rash of homicides in the Mexican border areas have been inter drug cartel exclusively. If you deduct the gangland related murders from the statistics, visiting Mexico is safer than visiting most US cities.
A Clear Example of Misleading US Press Reports...
In an article in the Los Angles Times dated March 22, 2009 context was clearly made to be misleading and we quote...
"One publication has posted several items pertaining to Mexico's drug war and danger, or perceived danger, to tourists visiting areas on the Baja California peninsula such as Tijuana, Rosarito Beach, Ensenada, Cabo San Lucas and La Paz."
Yet at the end the article there is significant backtracking from this statement...
"Most murders in the state of Baja California have occurred in or near Tijuana." (all but two were drug cartel related)
They backtrack further with...
"It should be noted that Baja California Sur, which comprises the southern half of the peninsula, is one of many blue states listed as zones with the fewest murders (1). Baja California Sur is home to its capital city of La Paz, Cabo San Lucas, San Jose del Cabo and Todos Santos."
Please note here that the state of Baja California has had one murder in the past year. That is fewer than any US state, regardless of population!
The continuing press in the United States, slamming Mexico for its violence problems have been prolific. It is without equivocation that there are certain border town areas that are as 'exciting' as the wild west or Chicago in the 1930's. There was a record number of murders in Cuilidad Juarez and Tijuana last year.
But there are several things to observe about these statistics. 1) Virtually all the murders were inter gang related. 2) Only a handful of 'civilians', numbers range from 2-6, not including domestic violence murders. One American tourist was killed in cross-fire. 3) The degree of violence in Tijuana, in murderers per 100,000 was exceeded by about 1/3 of US Cities. New Orleans still hold the title of most violent city, at 18.3 murders per 100,000.
Significant efforts have been put forth by the Mexican government to contain and quell the violence. In 2008 the violence spread to Rosarito Beach, Ensenada and as far south as El Rosario in Baja California. There has been additional Federal Police intervention throughout that state and even in Baja Sur. But more than 100 miles from the border, with few exceptions, Mexico is still he safe and fun place to visit that it has been for years.
The latest travel alert also contains references to demonstrations becoming violent. The same line can refer to most travel destination countries, including the United States and Britain.
It is important to put these events in perspective and to acknowledge the fact that government response has not only been immediate, but significant. Neither is it our intent to minimize the precautions travelers to Mexico should exercise to protect themselves and enjoy a fun and safe Mexican experience.
An important note: Carrying a firearm to protect yourself is not an option. The possession of a firearm and even ammunition can result in jail time in Mexico and is one of the items that military checkpoints are specifically checking for.
Doing the Math
Cabo San Lucas is gearing up for one of its most populated spring breaks in years. Hotel reservations and travel planners report numbers up significantly over last year. This may be due in part to the very favorable exchange rate of close to 15:1 on the Mexican peso.
More than 25,000 visitors come to Cabo each week by air alone. Another 15-25 thousand visit Los Cabos by cruise ship per week, in the peak of the season. With that volume of visitor traffic there are bound to be some incidents.
In the last 6 months these were some of the most noteworthy events regarding foriegn travelers to Baja:
Last fall two Americans were arrested and one died while in the custody of Cabo San Lucas police. Reports failed to mention that the two were being held for felony assault. The investigation continues as to whether there was any wrong doing by the officers.
Earlier this spring, two Canadians were wounded by two Mexican assailants in a Los Cabos Strip Bar. Although the assailants may have been 'connected' the dispute appeared to be over either drugs or one of the strippers. No one was arrested.
A recent press report sited that more Americans were arrested by Tijuana police than in any other foreign destination city. Of course! Tijuana was the #1 foreign city visited by Americans, simply because of the ease of it. More than 60 million persons crossed the border into Baja California last year. That is more than 1500 times more than the number who visited London.
In 2007 352 people were murdered in greater Tijuana. However, compared to US cities of about the same population, Tijuana falls in the 'also ran' category with 17.5 murders per 100,000 people. This compares to a safer San Diego, on the other side of the line with 5 murdered per 100K. However, a great number of US cities have higher murder rates; like Philadelphia, Houston, Dallas, Las Vegas and the winner (loser) New Orleans with more than 3 times the murder rate of Tijuana. Yet there is no travel warning for these cities?
30 of the murders in the region involved government anti-drug officials and police. These numbers and gruesome methods horrify Americans - but this is a war. Most of these were new federal officials sent to clean things up. There were others who's allegiance to which side was in question.
Like in the rest of Mexico, kidnapping Baja California increased last year. Less than 20US residents were abducted in the border area last year. Again, looking at the huge numbers of happy Baja visitors, that is half the number of people struck by lightening in the US last year!
Kidnappings for cash of foreigners is rare, as they have no idea what you are worth on face value. Two real estate representatives that were rescued by Mexican authorities were abducted by a very amateurish crew that failed to remove the license plates from the abduction vehicle, resulting in the arrest and rescue. These kidnappings are not the work of 'trained paramilitary groups' as some press reports would have you believe. Some of the kidnappings of US citizens involved those in the employ of a Mexican company. It is the employer that is often the actual financial target of the kidnappers. Several others of the missing US persons were tied to potential drug/gang activity.
The violence against US border agents makes prompt and colorful headlines in the US press. Rather, this should have been anticipated, when you squeeze a profitable business like the drug cartels which are, supported by American dollars, the bad guys are likely to push back. In looking at the statistics, there was no evidence that ANY innocent US citizen had been randomly killed in drug violence.
What is being done...
Make no mistake, the government of Mexico is well aware of the importance of US investment and tourist dollars in the development of Baja. Within days of the tragic events of November, the federal government began moving as many as 7000 troops to the region to combat the drug violence and corruption. Nearly half a million dollars was allocated to fund anti crime work in December 2007 alone.
More Troops to Restore Order - CNN
The Mexicans of the region have shown they are tired of the cloud of violence impeding their growth and prosperity. Two new mayors elected in the region had combating the crime issue as major platform planks. Recently elected Mayor Torres has appeared several times on San Diego television to outline the steps that are being taken to make Baja travel safer and more enjoyable.
Patrols have been increased dramatically in the tourist regions of Tijuana, Rosario Beach and Ensenada. Military checkpoints now check southbound vehicles as well as those headed north.
There has been no evidence that links any current member of Mexican law enforcement to any of the violent incidents against tourists..
There has not been an additional incident reported in Baja California since late November and there have been no reported attacks of this kind in Baja California Sur.
Travel safely, use your head and enjoy the warmth of the Baja sun and the people of this amazing peninsula. As the real numbers show, the odds of a successful and pleasant stay in Baja is overwhelming favorite bet..
Excerpts from the official US Department of State Travel Statement:
(Click here for full text)
First, let us note that this is virtually verbatim the same travel notice that has been issued for Mexico for more than 36 months, none of this is new.
February 20, 2009
This Travel Alert updates security information for U.S. citizens traveling and living in Mexico. It supersedes the Travel Alert for Mexico dated October 15, 2008, and expires on August 20, 2009.
While millions of U.S. citizens safely visit Mexico each year (including thousands who cross the land border every day for study, tourism or business), violence in the country has increased recently. It is imperative that travelers understand the risks of travel to Mexico, how best to avoid dangerous situations, and whom to contact if one becomes a crime victim. Common-sense precautions such as visiting only legitimate business and tourist areas during daylight hours, and avoiding areas where prostitution and drug dealing might occur, can help ensure that travel to Mexico is safe and enjoyable.
Crime and Violence Throughout Mexico
The greatest increase in violence has occurred near the U.S. border. However, U.S. citizens traveling throughout Mexico should exercise caution in unfamiliar areas and be aware of their surroundings at all times. Mexican and foreign bystanders have been injured or killed in violent attacks in cities across the country, demonstrating the heightened risk of violence in public places. In recent years, dozens of U.S. citizens have been kidnapped across Mexico. Many of these cases remain unresolved. U.S. citizens who believe they are being targeted for kidnapping or other crimes should notify Mexican officials and the nearest American consulate or the Embassy as soon as possible, and should consider returning to the United States.
U.S. citizens should make every attempt to travel on main roads during daylight hours, particularly the toll ("cuota") roads, which generally are more secure. Occasionally, the U.S. Embassy and consulates advise their employees as well as private U.S. citizens to avoid certain areas, abstain from driving on certain roads because of dangerous conditions or criminal activity, or recommend driving during daylight hours only. When warranted, U.S. government employees are restricted from traveling to or within parts of Mexico without prior approval from their supervisors. When this happens, the Embassy or the affected consulate will alert the local U.S. citizen Warden network and post the information on their respective websites, indicating the nature of the concern and the expected time period for which the restriction will remain in place. U.S. citizen visitors are encouraged to stay in the well-known tourist areas of the cities. Travelers should leave their itinerary with a friend or family member not traveling with them, avoid traveling alone, and should check with their cellular provider prior to departure to confirm that their cell phone is capable of roaming on GSM or 3G international networks. Do not display expensive-looking jewelry, large amounts of money, or other valuable items.
Violence Along the U.S. - Mexico Border
Mexican drug cartels are engaged in an increasingly violent conflict - both among themselves and with Mexican security services - for control of narcotics trafficking routes along the U.S.-Mexico border. In order to combat violence, the government of Mexico has deployed troops in various parts of the country. U.S. citizens should cooperate fully with official checkpoints when traveling on Mexican highways.
Some recent Mexican army and police confrontations with drug cartels have resembled small-unit combat, with cartels employing automatic weapons and grenades. Large firefights have taken place in many towns and cities across Mexico but most recently in northern Mexico, including Tijuana, Chihuahua City and Ciudad Juarez. During some of these incidents, U.S. citizens have been trapped and temporarily prevented from leaving the area. The U.S. Mission in Mexico currently restricts non-essential travel to the state of Durango and all parts of the state of Coahuila south of Mexican Highways 25 and 22 and the Alamos River for U.S. government employees assigned to Mexico. This restriction was implemented in light of the recent increase in assaults, murders, and kidnappings in those two states. The situation in northern Mexico remains fluid; the location and timing of future armed engagements cannot be predicted.
A number of areas along the border are experiencing rapid growth in the rates of many types of crime. Robberies, homicides, petty thefts, and carjacking have all increased over the last year across Mexico generally, with notable spikes in Tijuana and northern Baja California. Ciudad Juarez, Tijuana and Nogales are among the cities which have recently experienced public shootouts during daylight hours in shopping centers and other public venues. Criminals have followed and harassed U.S. citizens traveling in their vehicles in border areas including Nuevo Laredo, Matamoros, and Tijuana.
The situation in Ciudad Juarez is of special concern. Mexican authorities report that more than 1,800 people have been killed in the city since January 2008. Additionally, this city of 1.6 million people experienced more than 17,000 car thefts and 1,650 carjacking's in 2008. U.S. citizens should pay close attention to their surroundings while traveling in Ciudad Juarez, avoid isolated locations during late night and early morning hours, and remain alert to news reports. A recent series of muggings near the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez targeted applicants for U.S. visas. Visa and other service seekers visiting the Consulate are encouraged to make arrangements to pay for those services using a non-cash method.
U.S. citizens are urged to be alert to safety and security concerns when visiting the border region. Criminals are armed with a wide array of sophisticated weapons. In some cases, assailants have worn full or partial police or military uniforms and have used vehicles that resemble police vehicles. While most crime victims are Mexican citizens, the uncertain security situation poses serious risks for U.S. citizens as well. U.S. citizen victims of crime in Mexico are urged to contact the consular section of the nearest U.S. consulate or Embassy for advice and assistance. Contact information is provided at the end of this message.
Further Information
For more detailed information on staying safe in Mexico, please see the Mexico Country Specific Information at: http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_970.html. Information on security and travel to popular tourist destinations is also provided in the publication: "Spring Break in Mexico- Know Before You Go!!" at /spring_break_mexico_2812.html For the latest security information, U.S. citizens traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department's internet web site at http://travel.state.gov where the current Worldwide Caution, Travel Warnings, and Travel Alerts can be found. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the United States and canada, or, for callers from Mexico, a regular toll line at 001-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays). American citizens traveling or residing overseas are encouraged to register with the appropriate U.S. Embassy or Consulate on the State Department's travel registration website at https://travelregistration.state.gov/
The Embassy's Internet address is http://www.usembassy-mexico.gov/.
Consulates: .
Tijuana: Tapachula 96, telephone (52)(664) 622-7400
Consulary Offices
in Cabo San Lucas:
Blvd. Marina Local C-4, Plaza Nautica, Col. Centro, telephone (52)(624) 143-3566.
The Motivation for Misinformation
There are certain publications that seem to be beating the anti-Baja drum, not the least of which being the San Diego Union Tribune. From quashing press releases from Mexican government offices working to improve the situation to rehashing and rewording stories that are months old, there would appear to be a concerted effort to give Baja a black eye. Every time the issue sees to fade from the headlines these certain publications bring it to the forefront again.
Why? Perhaps it is because billions of dollars are at stake. The Baja Real Estate investment flood must be hurting someone's pocket book. Could it be that those SoCal real estate interests which make up a huge portion of these publications revenue are applying pressure to keep spending at home?
The Travel Dollar
Additionally, protectionism could also be at play here. With the suffering economies world wide, the major players have agree NOT to implement protectionist policies. Mexico is the United States largest foreign tourist destination with more than 12 million visitors per year. Discouraging Mexican travel keeps millions of travel dollars at home, hurting the Mexican economy which depends in a very large percentage on the US Travel Dollar.
The pressure may be coming from even a higher level. A few years back the US administration used similar anti-tourism tactics to pressure Mexico into selling additional crude oil to the US at prices set nearly a decade before. Tourism and foreign investment are critical in the continued growth of Mexico and both are heavily dependant on public perceptions to flourish. The answer may be as simple as to keeping every US travel dollar at home – to support a floundering US economy.
One of our Insider Readers writes:
Thank you so much for your article "Looking at the Facts" regarding the recent panic about travel to Mexico. I will be returning to Merida, Mexico for the third time next week and am frankly sick of fielding questions about safety.
Yes, of course safety is of concern, regardless of where you travel, but being from Chicago, I can say with certainty that I have always felt nothing but absolutely safe in Mexico. I only hope more people are of clear-enough mind to make the trip to Mexico and find that out for themselves
Partial Bibliography
http://www.archives.gov/genealogy/immigration/border-mexico.html
http://www.otaymesa.org/ab_otay/port_of_entry.html
http://www.bts.gov/help/border_crossing_entry_data.htm