Friday April 10 2020

Posted by BajaInsider.com on April 09, 2020
  • Progress of the Coron Virus in Mexico
    Progress of the Coron Virus in Mexico
  • Persons without the key symptoms are slowing the system for those who are infected
    Persons without the key symptoms are slowing the system for those who are infected
  • Contact for Autodiagnostics of Covid-19 in Baja California Sur!C
    Contact for Autodiagnostics of Covid-19 in Baja California Sur!C
  • Distribution Covid-19 Cases in Baja California Sur 04-09-20 12PM
    Distribution Covid-19 Cases in Baja California Sur 04-09-20 12PM
  • Numeric Distribution of Coiv-19 Worldwide 04-08-20
    Numeric Distribution of Coiv-19 Worldwide 04-08-20
  • Covid-19 Worldwide Curve ~ We're still on the uphill side.
    Covid-19 Worldwide Curve ~ We're still on the uphill side.
  • The relative lethality of Covid-19 continues to increase, up from 4% a week ago.
    The relative lethality of Covid-19 continues to increase, up from 4% a week ago.
  • Distribution of Covid-19 Cases in Mexico 04-08-20
    Distribution of Covid-19 Cases in Mexico 04-08-20

 

Updated Thursday, April 9, 2020... There are now 3181 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mexico with 174 deaths. For the third straight day the number of new cases in Mexico rose by 14% in 24hrs up from a 10% per day rise on Friday. There are 67 currently active cases reported in Baja California Sur and a disconnect between the state number of suspected cases of 106 and the federally reported number of 270 suspected cases. Sunday. April 5 brought the third death in La Paz, Baja California Sur. In Baja California, there are 226 confirmed cases and 422 suspected cases and 15 deaths.
Worldwide relative lethality continues to rise as well, rising  a whole percentage point in the past 7 days to 5.9% and nearly 4 times that of the virus when first reported. 

On april 7 it was reported that 42 medical staff at The IMSS hospital in Cabo San Lucas have tested positive for the virus. The facility was earlier designated for exclusive care of COVID-9 patients. 

EFFECTIVE APRIL 5, 2020 THROUGH APRIL 30, 2020 ALL HOTELS, TIMESHARES AND B&B RENTALS MUST CLOSE.
EFFECTIVE APRIL 3, 2020 THE LA PAZ MALECON IS CLOSED
EFFECTIVE APRIL 2, 2020 ALL COMMERCIAL RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES FROM MEXICAN PORTS ARE CLOSED
EFFECTIVE MARCH 28, 2020 BEACHES IN LA PAZ ARE CLOSED

The sub secretary of Prevention and Promotion of Health, Dr. Hugo Lopez Gatel presented the estimations of the Sentinal Model to be much higher than the actual reported cases of COVID-19. The model, built by the government in 2016 to provide information to healthcare workers in times such as these, takes into account the contagion of those not presenting symptoms, in addition to those testing positive. This alone provides a multiplier of 10 to 12 times the apparent number.

 

According to the Sentinal estimates that back a week or so ago when we had just 8 cases in the state there were 568 persons in the state capable of communicating the disease. 

Although all beaches are closed in BCS persons continue to flock to the beaches in Cabo San Lucas. Authorities state that as of Thursday more citations will be issued. 

In Los Cabos the Los Cabos College of Architechs has established a program to help construction workers return to their home state. with the termination of most construction underway many are left without transportation, a place to stay or means to return home. More than 200 have applied for assistance. The phone numbers to call to apply for the program are 624-147-5713 or 624-117-4935 or 624-108-8978.

 

There are no current plans to make Baja dry. The state of Tabasco is the only state to legislate being 'dry'. Sonora, Tecate and Quintana Roo have partial restrictions on the sale of alcohol. However, the production of and distribution of alcoholic beverages have been deemed "non-essential".

 

Thursday April 2 the Governor of Baja California Sur announce that those with confirmed cases of Covid-19 that do not self-isolate annd continue to put others at risk in spreading the virus will be sited under emergency health regulations.

 

In La Paz on Friday the Malecon was also closed to vehicular traffic. In a passing observation about 60% of persons observed were wearing the required mouth covering in public. 

 

US Customs and Border Patrol announced Friday the cllosure of some of the pedestrial walkways from Mexico into California will be closed and the number of lanes for vehicular traffic will be reduced. Commercial operations will continue.

The relative mortality rate of COVID-19 took a jump to 5.1% worldwide. Some argue the mortality rate is lower because so many persons are unaware they are infected. However, in the statistical collection, it does indicate the virus has become more lethal since its first appearance in December. The Spanish Flu of 1918 began as rather innocuous influenza in Kansas and developed into a far more lethal strain when communicated to Europe during the First World War. 

The ports of Baja California Sur are now closed to commerical tour and charter traffic. Like the beach closures, this resulted from people taking the business and school closeures as a holiday, rather than staying home. Some Cabo San Lucas tour employees have been furloghed for as much as 30 days.  No fishing, diving, snorkeling, whale watching or island tours will be allowed to leave port until at least April 16. The ports re still currently open to privsate vessels.

 CLICK HERE FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SELF DIAGNOSTIC APPLICATION

There may be no relief in sight for the travel industry, the Mexican Secretary of Health announced that they expect the Covid-19 virus to peak in Mexico during June. 

 

The big news from Friday is the closure of the US/Mexican border to all but essential traffic. as of 8:30 AM on March 21 there were fewer than 100 cars waiting to cross San Ysidro into California from Tijuana at what is usually one of the busiest border crossings in the world. Although commerce was not supposed to be affected, southbound deliveries from California have already met delays. However as of 3/22 air travel remains unrestricted, except for airlines canceling some flights. 

Unfortunately, the Mexican government has put the weight of their concern on the personal economics of containing the virus and has delayed too long in implementing travel restrictions. Should domestic travel remain unfettered until the virus becomes evident medical professionals agree that that would be too late? Semana Santa vacations will begin shortly, which represents the greatest domestic travel time in Mexico and will spread the virus exponentially across Mexico. 

March 19, 2020, We have updated the graphics above to reflect the most recent information released by the Secretary of Health in Mexico City. As of Wednesday night, there are 118 cases of Covid-19 in Mexico. There are two cases in the state of Baja California, one American and one person infected by contact. There five suspect cases in Baja California Sur. 

For the first time since the outbreak began, there were no new cases in the original province of Wuhan, China. There was also a slight decrease in reported mortality rate, which still remains over 4%. 

As of the Wednesday night release from the Secretary of health in Mexico City there are two cases of Covid-19 in Baja California, an American woman and a resident that have tested positive in a case of direct transmission.  

There is an overtone in much of the local media that tourists will be responsible for the arrival of Covid-19 in the state. This is quite likely to play out as fact, simply by logistics. It was evident in travels around La Paz yesterday people are exercising the right to greater personal space and locals seem to give non-Hispanics a little more space than that. 

As of Thursday 9 AM the City of La Paz has enacted the campaign "I stay at home" which includes the suspension of public events, closure of bars, among other measures. Currently, schools will close at the end of classes today and there will be a significant reduction in staff for nonessential departments and time reductions for parents who must attend children at home, due to school closures.  

Beaches are being 'filtered' to keep the numbers of people limited and it was indicated that once the virus is detected in the state the beaches will be closed. 

Bars and gyms will be closed. Restaurants will be required to reduce seating by 50% and also are likely to be closed once the virus is detected in the state. 

It was suggested that additional screening be implemented at the two main entry points into the municipality of La Paz on Hwy 1.  

The meeting also acknowledged a shortage of medical equipment on hand and will address attempts to bolster supplies. (Source: translation of live civic broadcast)  

The City of Los Cabos has opted to request bars and restaurants to limit occupancy to 50% of normal occupancy and all bars must close at 2 AM. The council reiterated that measures are being taken at the airport to detect persons infected as they enter Baja California Sur.  

It was indicated that since last weekend when the program was initiated more than 5000 persons have been temperatures screened at the airport.(Source: Local media)

The unfortunate gaping hole in this strategy is that persons can be infected and contagious up to 7 days before exhibiting symptoms. The Mexican Secretary of Health projects the virus to become evident in Baja California Sur in the coming week.

March 17, 2020   As of March 16th, there were 82 lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Mexico and at this time no confirmed cases of the disease on the Baja peninsula. There are 15 suspected cases in Baja California and a virtually unbelievable 1 case under investigation in Baja California Sur.  

The Secretary of Health's outline of contagion indicates we should expect the cases of the virus to climb in the last days of March as the virus spreads to our region.  

Also See: Webcam Shots from Great Cities Around the Globe on March 16 

How Long does the Virus Live Outside the Body?
Neeltje van Doremalen, a virologist at the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and her colleagues at the Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Hamilton, Montana, have done some of the first tests of how long SARS-CoV-2 can last for on different surfaces
 
Their study, which has yet to be published in a scientific journal, shows that the virus could survive in droplets for up to three hours after being coughed out into the air. Fine droplets between 1-5 micrometres in size – about 30 times small than the width of a human hair – can remain airborne for several hours in still air.
 
It means that the virus circulating in unfiltered air conditioning systems will only persist for a couple of hours at the most, especially as aerosol droplets tend to settle on surfaces faster in disturbed air.
 
But the NIH study found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard – up to 24 hours – and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces.

Several events around the tip of the peninsula have been canceled or postpone, please check the event calendar of your specific event to see if it will continue. 

In Baja California Sur

Two telephone lines have been established,
624-228-6855
&
612-199-5386, where calls about suspicious cases are received

Today we have added a new graphic showing the current mortality rate from the Covid-19 Virus since January 30 when 1.38% of tested patients succumbed to the disease compared to 3.98% of the tested cases proved deadly. One of the concerns amongst health officials is that as the virus moves through an increasing number of people it has the opportunity to evolve. The 1918 Spanish Flu (Kansas Flu) is believed to have originated in the US as a relatively low level of mortality. By the time it traveled to Europe and back again to the US the mortality rate had more than tripled.  

I think one of the difficulties the population is having in accepting this as a pandemic is the lack of a serious threat to general health over the last 60 years. There are few parents still left around that remember the days of summer public pool closures and self-isolation which was brought on by Polio outbreaks in the US. There are even fewer who have a recollection of the 1918 influenza pandemic. We have grown overly accustomed to a 'safe' world. Science has been warning us of the possibility of pandemics for at least 40 years, due to our increase mobility as a species. There are very few persons left that remember the days when a disease of any form had a significant social effect as the Covid virus is inflicting. 

Like the 100-year rainstorm causing flooding, this pandemic will cause an overflow in healthcare facilities. Hospitals equip themselves to handle the normal daily load with a small margin of extra beds on hand for emergencies. Healthcare facilities are going to be overwhelmed almost without exception handling Covid cases in addition to day to day emergencies. 

The coronavirus outbreak has been officially labeled a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the number of cases outside China had increased 13-fold in two weeks. He said he was "deeply concerned" by "alarming levels of inaction".

A pandemic is a disease that is spreading in multiple countries around the world at the same time.

Friday 3/6/20 The Federal Department of Health announced Thursday that Baja California Sur has suspected cases of Covid-19 along with 9 other states in the country. There are no confirmed cases of the virus in BCS at this time.

The information revealed in a press conference from the National Palace, and through a map called “National Overview”, contrasts with what was known through Wednesday, when Baja Sur was not included in the list with potential cases.

Although it was pointed out that the number of SUSPECTED cases this Thursday amounts to 35, it was not specified how many of those belong to Baja California Sur, so it is expected that during the next few hours the information will be clarified.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION

DEATH RATE
confirmed cases 

DEATH RATE
all cases

Cardiovascular disease

13.2%

10.5%

Diabetes

9.2%

7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease

8.0%

6.3%

Hypertension

8.4%

6.0%

Cancer

7.6%

5.6%

no pre-existing conditions

 

0.9%

This past Monday, March 2, the State Health Council held a session around the situation of Covid-19 in Baja California Sur; in it, it was confirmed that the state medical resources have a capacity of 116 beds for isolation of patients in hospitals of the 5 municipalities and a little more than 900 items for the processing of the Covid-19 specialized tests. The director of Health Services, Heriberto Soto Haro explained that the conversion beds of the institute in charge are distributed mainly in La Paz, with 40 of them, followed by Los Cabos with 16 beds, Ciudad Constitución with 8, Loreto has 6 and Santa Rosalia 6 others. 

Governor Carlos Mendoza Davis commented that the epidemiological surveillance of Baja California Sur will continue to detect suspected cases of Covid-19; airports, ports and highway accesses will not be closed, he said. The Governor of BCS made one of the most poignant and correct statements I have yet researched on the subject. The governor said, "The international specialists in public health themselves have determined that mobility restrictions are not effective, due to the rapidity with which respiratory infections are transmitted, even before symptoms appear in carriers," he said. To paraphrase the press conference, Covid is unavoidably coming to wherever you are, the best we can do is handle the outbreak to the best of our ability and minimize impact with patient containment and treatment. 

 

What is the Corona Virus?

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that circulate between humans and animals (cats, camels, Chiroptera, etc.) Coronaviruses evolve and develop the ability to transmit from animals to humans and spread among people, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Therefore to be correct the name of this health concern is Covid-19 and is of the SARS family. Symptoms appear in 3-14 days from exposure. 

Why the concern?

I found the numbers and the news confusing, so I did a little research. The end of the world and conspiracy theory videos aside, I found doctors and researchers worldwide are sharing information via Youtube.

Covid-19 is moving fast.

Pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO Country Office in China on 31 December 2019. On January 31 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern". By February 29 the virus was reported on every continent except Antarctica. World travel has dramatically hastened the spread of the virus without a doubt, but closing borders at this point is just not practical.

Is Covid-19 worse than Influenza?

The president of the United States scoffed at the death toll of just over 3000 when, as he said, "Influenza kills 35,000." The disparity overlooked by the president was the fact that this virus is still in its infancy. The numbers vary from flu season to flu season between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths in the USA. With a population of 327 million that represents a mortality rate of 0.004% in a good year to 0.02% in a hard-hitting year.

Men die from Covid-19 at an average rate of 2.8% while women are slightly less susceptible with a 1.7% mortality rate.

The current mortality rate for the Covid-19 as reported by the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology and a study of more than 73 thousand cases is 2.25%. Assuming as unlikely as it is, that mortality remains the same that would mean close to 7.5 million dead in the USA and 3 million in Mexico.

However, a strain of the virus may have evolved in Iran where the mortality rate may be in excess of 12.3%. A strain that virulent would leave 40 million dead in the USA and 20 million in Mexico. So yes, Covid-19 poses a greater threat than Influenza in its worst season.

The virus is more dangerous the older you are and complicated by other health conditions. Mortality increase 3.5X between 40 and 50 and 4.25X between 50 and 60 years of age. Persons over 80 have the greatest risk with more than 15% of the patients succumbing to the disease. While in some persons the symptoms may be so mild as to not even present the need to visit a doctor.

Mortality rates are likely to soar if the virus spreads to underdeveloped nations. At the current time. the United States is the only G20 developed nation without a national healthcare system.

How does it Kill?

The virus is formed to attach itself to the tissues in the lungs. In the lungs, it uses the lung tissue to clone itself in a dramatic evolution. Eventually, the virus covers enough of the oxygen-absorbing capillaries and the patient suffocates in the fluids of his own deteriorating lungs.

Protecting yourself:

A CDC video for healthcare workers indicated that gauze masks provide very limited protection, as they leak around the side. Respirators of an N95 rating are what is recommended.

Mexican television is running series of Public Service commercials advising citizens to protect themselves from the virus in much the same manner as any other seasonal outbreak with covering your mouth when you sneeze, washing often and not touching your face are the current remedial remedies. This is likely to have the same limited effectiveness that it does during the flu season.

What to Expect

That is the million-dollar question that even the experts are facing down. From what I've gleaned it is coming to a neighborhood near you and soon. Younger people seem to be at much lower risk and thus spread it without knowing to those in the higher risk groups. Old folks, smokers, those with heart disease and cancer should be much more concerned. The Chinese

In Italy and France restrictions have been placed on public gatherings and the United States has, out of strange motivation, restricted travel to Iran and its virulent strain but not to Italy, where the infection numbers are higher.

 

Sources 

https://www.npr.org

https://pulsoslp.com.mx

https://www.gob.mx/salud

https://www.gob.mx/salud/

http://coronavirus.bcs.gob.mx

http://cdc.gov

 

http://www.bbc.com/news


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